Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire with Iran: Tactical Success or New Challenges?

On April 7, 2023, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which he claimed provided an interim tactical success. However, as highlighted by The New York Times, this ceasefire has not addressed any of the core issues that initiated the conflict.

The announced ceasefire may bolster Trump's belief that his strategy, based on maximalist demands and the disregard for previous agreements, can be effective in geopolitics. According to the NYT, Trump's escalation of rhetoric to 'astronomical levels' has enabled him to achieve what he has sought for weeks. The article's author describes the ceasefire agreement as a 'tactical victory' that could potentially restore oil, fertilizer, and other goods flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as calm markets that are concerned about recession risks due to the global energy shock.

However, even if Trump's apocalyptic threats against Iran have worked in the short term, the fundamental disagreements with Tehran remain as sharp as they were in February when the U.S. president initiated this war. The NYT lists unresolved issues, reminding readers that Iran has maintained its regime, nuclear arsenal, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran continues to be governed by a theocratic regime that relies on the brutal forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Under this regime, the intimidated population has suffered further from missile strikes and bombings. Iran's nuclear potential, including over 400 kg of enriched uranium, remains intact, and the risk of producing nuclear weapons has been the formal pretext for war.

The war has also shocked U.S. allies in the Gulf countries, who have realized how vulnerable their infrastructures are to Iranian missiles and drones. Rising gas and fuel prices cast doubt on Trump's promises of reductions following the cessation of hostilities, which the NYT also emphasizes.

Another consequence of the war has been the fracturing of Trump's political base, as former supporters of the president have begun to blame him and his team, including Vice President Jay D. Vance, for breaking the promise not to involve America in wars in the Middle East and other regions.

Iran, for its part, has demonstrated its ability to withstand about 13,000 precise strikes and continue waging asymmetric warfare by disrupting oil supplies and launching cyberattacks on American infrastructure.

Thus, despite the declared ceasefire, Trump faces new complex tasks: not only achieving a lasting resolution to the conflict but also proving to the United States and the world that this war was worth the effort. To do this, Trump must demonstrate that he has stripped Iran of control over the Strait of Hormuz and its capabilities to create nuclear weapons, the NYT underscores.

However, the preliminary conditions of the agreement proposed by Iran do not currently indicate this. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume, but under the control of Iranian armed forces, who would determine who and when could navigate this waterway.

Richard Fontaine, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security, noted that Iran continues to control the strait, which was not the case before the war. He expressed doubt that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran controls a key energy route, which could lead to an even worse outcome than existed before the war.

Additionally, Trump, who previously demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender,' has now effectively agreed to negotiate based on a 10-point plan presented by Iran to Pakistan. Trump called this plan 'an acceptable basis for negotiations,' although Fontaine pointed out that it resembles Tehran's wishlist, which includes global recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium, the withdrawal of all American troops from the region, and the lifting of economic sanctions.

This is merely a starting point for negotiations, but the gap between Iran's and the U.S.'s visions is so vast that bridging it could take years rather than two weeks. The Obama administration took two and a half years to reach the 2015 nuclear agreement, from which Trump withdrew in 2018. Now he will have to negotiate under the threat of possible resumption of hostilities.

If Trump fails to secure the removal of over 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% from Iran, along with a significantly larger amount of less enriched nuclear fuel, he will achieve even less in his war, which cost billions of dollars, than Obama did 11 years ago. At that time, Iran removed 97% of its nuclear arsenal from the country, as the NYT highlights.

Fontaine summarizes that there is a likelihood that the U.S. and the world could find themselves in a worse position than before the operation against Iran began.

In conclusion, on April 7, Trump stated that he agreed to a ceasefire with Iran for two weeks on the condition of the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that the U.S. has already achieved and exceeded all military objectives, as well as made significant progress toward achieving a final peace agreement.