Trump Criticizes NATO Ahead of Summit in Ankara: Does This Threaten the Alliance?

The annual NATO leaders' summit is scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara, and the region is already feeling the repercussions of the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. Prytula notes that the consequences of this war remain uncertain but could have serious implications for the situation in Turkey. For instance, further escalation of the conflict in Iran could lead to a massive refugee crisis that Turkey would have to confront.

Turkey, in turn, may have every moral right to seek support from the United States; however, Trump, as the analyst points out, is unlikely to be willing to financially back this initiative, especially in the context of the upcoming autumn elections. Meanwhile, European countries see little sense in paying for actions taken by the U.S. and Israel, which could lead to significant conflicts among NATO members.

In the context of energy policy, if issues in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the idea of constructing pipelines from the Persian Gulf to ports not controlled by Israel, such as Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey itself, will gain importance. This elevates Ankara's role as a moderator in Syrian processes, which may raise concerns in Israel. Conversely, this could contradict U.S. plans for oil and gas supplies to Europe, also limiting Russia's maneuvers.

One of the outcomes of the war has been the strengthening of cooperation among Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, which together represent a population of about 450 million people. These countries are actively engaging not only in the region but also in Africa, which could lead to new conflicts or, conversely, to cooperation.

As the July summit approaches, tensions between the U.S. and other NATO members are likely to not only persist but intensify. Prytula believes that creating a strong final document that encompasses a global agenda and geography will be a challenging task. It remains unclear what wording will be used to define relations with Ukraine and Russia.

The line of shifting the responsibility for deterring Russia onto the European members of the Alliance will remain. However, voices are already being heard in these countries calling for a de-escalation of relations with Moscow, and depending on U.S. actions, these sentiments may strengthen.

Although the U.S. is not formally withdrawing from NATO, the accumulated problems could raise serious doubts about the Alliance's ability to adequately respond to crises in Europe. In June and July, the U.S. will celebrate its 250th anniversary and host the World Cup, while August may present an ideal month for Putin to stage provocations in Europe that Washington and Brussels may struggle to respond to adequately.

For Putin, this could become an opportunity to rally the population, quell grievances over economic issues, and mobilize support ahead of the State Duma elections, which could turn into a celebration of defiance. Externally, this may provide him with an argument for revising sanctions and preparing for new challenges.

The text is published with the author's permission.