Global Agriculture Sector on the Brink of Disaster: Hormuz Strait Blockade Threatens Fertilizer Shortage

The current turmoil in the Middle East, where missiles are landing on territories, has dire implications for the global agriculture sector. The blockade of the Hormuz Strait, which serves as a crucial maritime pathway, has led to a near-complete stoppage of fertilizer shipments, posing a significant threat to the global food supply chain. The production of nitrogen fertilizers, which relies heavily on natural gas, is now at risk, potentially resulting in record food price increases reminiscent of the energy crisis experienced in the 1970s.

Matin Kaim, an expert from Bonn University, warns of the severe potential for this situation to escalate into a widespread crisis that will impact the poorest segments of the population. While the Middle East is not typically associated with fertile lands, it plays a pivotal role in global agriculture. The Hormuz Strait accounts for one-third of the world's fertilizer volumes, underscoring its importance to the agricultural sector.

Qatar, which supplies 15% of the world's urea (carbamide), controls half of the international trade in this fertilizer. When this key supplier shuts its doors, factories in India and Pakistan, which depend on imported gas, come to a standstill. Anthony Ryan, an expert from the University of Sheffield, notes, "If we completely abandoned mineral fertilizers, half of humanity would simply starve to death." This highlights the critical dependence of the global agriculture sector on fertilizers produced in the region.

The crisis has already struck farmers in the midst of the spring planting season. The price of urea has surged by 50%, ammonia has increased by 20%, and diesel, essential for tractor operations, has skyrocketed by 60%. In the United States, where farmers are already on the brink of survival, the situation is critical: the number of bankruptcies in the agricultural sector has risen by 46% in 2025. Growing corn, which requires substantial nitrogen, is becoming economically unfeasible. Farmers face an impossible choice: plant at a loss, switch to less demanding crops, or leave their fields fallow.

Fertilizer specialist Deepika Thapliyal points out that rising grocery prices are inevitable, with forecasts suggesting food prices could increase by another 20-30%. This means consumers may soon encounter significant hikes in the prices of basic food items.

The war in the Middle East has turned fertilizers into a geopolitical weapon, wielding far greater power than oil. While the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 created challenges for the export of finished grain, the events surrounding Iran are destroying the very capacity to grow that grain. With the Middle East paralyzed, leverage shifts to Russia and Belarus, which are the world's largest exporters of fertilizers.

Moreover, China, another key player in this industry, has halted exports to protect its domestic market. Governments in many countries are attempting to lift sanctions on supplies from Venezuela or Belarus, but the dilapidated infrastructure of these nations cannot quickly fill the market gap.

Amid this shortage, government policies regarding biofuels appear absurd: humanity continues to literally burn food in fuel tanks. Over 5% of all calories produced globally are converted into fuel for cars. In Europe, this figure is staggering: "We burn about 15 million loaves of bread every day for biofuel. It’s a crazy way to produce energy," laments Paul Berens from Oxford. Instead of flooding the market with this grain to lower prices, the governments of the United States and Australia are merely increasing the ethanol content in gasoline, attempting to maintain their approval ratings with drivers.

History provides a grim hint as to what empty shelves may lead to. The crop failure of 1788 was a detonator for the French Revolution, while the 'Springtime of Nations' in 1848 arose against the backdrop of potato blight and famine. "Whenever we see a spike in food prices, political instability follows," emphasizes Berens, warning of the potential consequences of the current situation.