US Intelligence Believes Iran Will Not Agree to Unblock the Strait of Hormuz

American intelligence assesses that Iran is highly unlikely to agree to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to be its most potent 'trump card' in the ongoing geopolitical situation. According to reports from U.S. intelligence, Tehran is expected to maintain its blockade of this strategically vital artery for oil exports, which serves as Iran's only real bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States. Intelligence analysts, relying on available information, believe that Iran will persist in blocking the strait, as high energy prices worldwide could serve as a pressure tool against the U.S., potentially pushing President Trump towards a rapid de-escalation of his campaign against Iran, especially amid public opinion pressures within the United States.

Reports also suggest that a potential conflict could even bolster Iran's regional positions, as it successfully demonstrates its capability to control this crucial route, creating significant challenges for its neighbors. 'In this case, it is clear that Iran has 'tasted power' and its control over the strait, so it is unlikely to concede this anytime soon,' one of the sources remarked.

On Friday, President Donald Trump stated that he could 'easily unblock the Strait of Hormuz,' but emphasized that this process would take time. According to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity, Trump is confident that the strait 'will be unblocked very soon' and that Iran will not be allowed to dictate terms on this issue. Simultaneously, the U.S. president underscored that this matter is significantly more important for other countries than for the United States itself.

Experts believe that a potential military operation to unblock the strait is fraught with risks and does not guarantee a reliable outcome. The width of the Strait of Hormuz at its narrowest point between the coasts of Iran and Oman is approximately 33 kilometers; however, the corridor through which tankers pass is only 3 kilometers wide for two-way traffic, making vessels 'easy' targets. Even if American forces manage to control the coastline and islands surrounding the strait, Iran would still have the capability to attack this narrow corridor from deep within its territory using various means of strike.

Similar arguments against a military operation to unblock the Strait of Hormuz were expressed by French President Emmanuel Macron. During an advisory meeting convened by Britain on April 2, over 40 countries participated in discussions regarding possible ways to unblock the strait.

The situation remains extremely tense, and Iran's subsequent actions could significantly impact global energy markets as well as the political landscape in the region. Observers emphasize the importance of international cooperation to address this issue, as it pertains not only to the United States but also to many other countries that rely on stability in this strategic waterway.