Iran's Passive Defense Proves Effective Yet Inadequate, Turkish Researcher Says

In his new research, published for the Center for Iranian Studies, Turkish analyst Oral Toga has drawn attention to the effectiveness of Iran's passive defense, which he claims has proven to be better than anticipated. However, he stressed that this form of defense on its own has failed to ensure full protection for the nation. Toga noted that passive defense has allowed for the preservation of some military potential even amid massive attacks, but its capabilities remain limited without support from other defense elements.

The analyst emphasized that one of the key issues is the lack of adequate attention to civil resilience. In particular, he pointed out the insufficient number of shelter systems, food supplies, and energy resources. 'In Tehran and other major cities, there are no functional bomb shelters. This creates serious risks for the civilian population during air attacks. Such a gap significantly reduces the overall resilience of the state to prolonged conflict,' Toga explained.

Furthermore, the expert noted that strikes on the country's energy infrastructure pose risks to food security. While the passive defense system has managed to preserve missiles, it has jeopardized the ability to supply food to the population. 'Energy losses directly impact production and logistics. This could lead to broader humanitarian consequences,' he added.

Toga also emphasized that passive defense cannot replace active air defense systems. 'Passive defense is not an alternative but a complement to active defense. The defensive system loses effectiveness when the enemy's air superiority is absolute. That is why it is critically important to maintain a balance between these elements,' the researcher concluded.

Iran's passive defense strategy involves protecting critical infrastructure through fortification and concealment. This includes relocating important facilities underground and duplicating them to ensure survival during bombardments. This strategy was developed following the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, highlighting Iran's vulnerability to airstrikes. After the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the use of precision weaponry, the process of relocating important facilities underground in Iran was accelerated.

It is worth noting that recently, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran 'is nearing its end' and may last another two to three weeks. This statement has raised concerns among the international community, as the situation in the region remains tense, and the consequences of a potential conflict could be catastrophic.

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