KPI for the American Army: How Trump Prepares Local Hell in Iran

A military analyst and former advisor to Ukraine's Minister of Defense has provided insights into the current situation in Iran, emphasizing that the American military could create a local hell in just one month with an investment of $30 billion. The likelihood of reaching agreements in the Persian Gulf remains high, despite the varied opinions circulating on social media. While Trump’s trolling on Twitter is one aspect, the real consequences of military actions on the ground are entirely different.

The author highlights that it is in Ukraine's interest for these agreements to be reached as soon as possible, but with an important caveat: they must not overly restrict Europe, which serves as Ukraine's rear. Many comments regarding the situation are based on emotions tied to Trump's personality, which may be justified in a political context, but is entirely misguided when it comes to military outcomes.

It is essential to set aside personal preferences and focus on the facts. In January 2025, Trump and his team established a key performance indicator (KPI) for the American military machine: lethality. This KPI does not include gender equality, human rights, or values, but rather the ability to inflict harm. Washington is determining where and how much death needs to be directed.

Over the past year, the American military has conducted three widely known campaigns abroad, along with several smaller operations, including in Ecuador and Nigeria, and is currently engaged in a fourth. The first campaign, which took place exactly one year ago, was relatively unsuccessful — it was a strike against the Houthis. An excessive amount of force was concentrated to eliminate them, which did not yield the desired results: the Houthis did not disappear but suffered significant losses and did not pose serious problems for a year.

The main failure of that period was a political scandal related to the addition of a journalist to a chat, which led to the resignation of National Security Advisor Michael Waltz at the UN. However, Defense Secretary Hegset remained steadfast, as he did not deviate from Trump’s line. The second campaign, which occurred later, was highly successful and demonstrative: the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran for 12 days, showcasing their ability to strike from anywhere in the world.

The Pentagon intentionally designed this operation to show the world that America could strike at any moment. This confirmed the global dominance of the United States. Now, the Pentagon possesses a wealth of practical knowledge: how long preparation takes, what resources are necessary, how much an operation costs, and what could go wrong. The third campaign was also successful and allowed for the testing of new tactics, including an operation to evacuate a comrade of Maduro.

The fourth campaign is currently in an active phase. The U.S. concentrated forces for a month and then conducted operations over five weeks, announcing a military cycle lasting five to six weeks at the beginning of March. The operation has reached the stage of (pre)ground invasion with expanded targets for airstrikes. During the operation, a pilot was extracted from deep behind enemy lines, raising the question: 'Can Russia do that?'

This experience is hard to overestimate. Costs have been calculated, and mistakes are being analyzed. It is important to note that all of this occurred amidst misunderstandings and obstacles with European partners, which will also lead to conclusions. Now everyone sees that the U.S. is necessary, and this puts pressure on smaller countries. Regardless of what politicians say, if the American military machine begins to move, a predictable outcome can be expected within a month.

Imagine if tomorrow Trump goes to play golf, and the steering wheel ends up in the hands of someone more palatable to Trump’s opponents, such as Gavin Newsom. Would anything change in strategy? No. The same timelines, resources, and tactics would remain. All this knowledge is now in the Americans' arsenal, and even a new Secretary of Defense would not be able to change the situation. Hegset may disappear, but the lethality machine will remain.

Negotiations that take place in the near future may also bring a lot of emotions. For instance, Israel may contest certain options regarding Lebanon, and provocations may arise from the Houthis. It is crucial to understand whom the Israelis and Americans have targeted in Iran. They have been eliminating key representatives of the Ayatollah regime and the IRGC, while the Iranian army has remained virtually untouched. The president and government of Iran have remained intact, albeit slightly battered.

This is not just a peculiarity of Iran but also a lesson learned from the Iraq war, when Americans invaded and created chaos from which ISIS emerged. Washington must learn from past mistakes to avoid repeating such situations in the future.