Trump's Lifting of Sanctions a Win for Russia, Says Kobolev

The recent decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to lift sanctions imposed on Russian oil tankers has emerged as a substantial victory for Russia, which has undoubtedly influenced the Kremlin's ability to finance its ongoing war against Ukraine. This assertion was made by Andriy Kobolev, the former head of Naftogaz Ukraine, during an interview with the publication NV. Kobolev emphasized that, in the short term, the Russians have reaped relatively significant benefits from this decision.

Kobolev pointed out that while it may appear that the Russians are the beneficiaries enjoying increased revenues, this does not equate to them gaining any leverage over the situation. 'The math indicates that in the short-term, the Russians have achieved a relatively large gain. The question is, what will happen next? I do not believe that the Russians have gained any leverage, nor do they possess any additional 'card to play,' as President Trump might say. They are more like a passive beneficiary, receiving additional income and profits situationally,' he stated.

The former Naftogaz head also highlighted potential consequences if Trump's tactics lead to the end of the war and a greater opening for Iran's exports. 'What will happen if Trump's tactics result in the war's conclusion and a larger opening for Iran? Then we can discuss the ultimate effect of this war. It is too early to speak about that now,' Kobolev noted.

He referenced analytics from The Economist, which indicate that the countries most affected by the war are not Iran, but rather other Gulf nations that are oil producers. 'Iran's production is not suffering, and their exports are even increasing. This theoretically means that they may be interested in continuing their exports. If everything unfolds this way, I believe it will be a significant strategic loss for Russia. But again, this requires the war to end,' Kobolev emphasized.

Discussing the possibility of Ukrainian strikes on the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Kobolev expressed the opinion that such actions could significantly reduce the super-profits that the Russians have been accumulating recently. 'I think this assessment is very close to reality. It is necessary to clearly calculate how much additional profit the Russians are receiving and how much they are losing in revenue due to the decreased volume to determine the final economic effect,' he remarked. 'But it can certainly be stated that, broadly speaking, our Armed Forces have become a more effective tool of sanctions against Russian oil and gas than the entire American OFAC (The Office of Foreign Assets Control),' Kobolev added.

It is worth noting that earlier reports indicated that Tehran warned that if the United States continues to strike Iranian infrastructure, 'the gates of hell' would open for the U.S. and Israel. Tehran also stated that it would fully open the Strait of Hormuz only after compensating the country for financial losses due to the war.

On April 6, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire through intermediaries, which could lead to the war's final conclusion. On the same day, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Iran had rejected a proposal to end the war with the U.S. and Israel, under which Tehran would unblock the Strait of Hormuz for the ceasefire.

Subsequently, CNN reported that Trump did not support the plan presented by the intermediaries. On April 6, 2026, President Donald Trump stated that Iran could be destroyed in one night. These events indicate that the situation remains tense, and further actions could significantly impact the global economy and the political landscape in the region.