Elections in Hungary, New US Strikes on Iran — Key Events for Ukraine Next Week

The parliamentary elections in Hungary, set for April 12, 2026, are poised to have a profound impact on the unfolding situation in Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has constructed his campaign around a narrative critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and has obstructed multiple crucial EU resolutions aimed at supporting Ukraine, now faces the possibility of electoral defeat. Recent polling indicates that Orban's party, Fidesz, trails the opposition party Tisza by a margin of 19-23%.

In the lead-up to the elections, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Budapest on April 7-8, a move widely interpreted as a sign of support for Prime Minister Orban. During this pre-election period, U.S. President Donald Trump has also publicly expressed his backing for Orban, describing him as 'a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record of achieving phenomenal results.'

Any potential change in power is likely to be prolonged and contested. Over Orban's 16 years in office, Hungary's democratic institutions have faced significant erosion, while key components of the state apparatus have been restructured to consolidate the ruling Fidesz party's position.

However, a shift in Hungary's political course could enhance the likelihood of unblocking a €90 billion EU loan package for Ukraine, advancing a new round of sanctions against Russia, and promoting negotiations regarding Ukraine's EU membership.

While no significant breakthroughs are anticipated in peace talks with Russia, attention will be focused on President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal for an Easter ceasefire. During discussions with American negotiators on April 1, he suggested a bilateral ceasefire that would include strikes on energy infrastructure during the Easter holidays. This year, Orthodox Easter falls on April 12.

Reports indicate that Russia has rejected this proposal; however, it remains crucial to monitor statements and reactions from the United States. Notably, none of the previous proposals for a bilateral ceasefire have been successfully implemented.

Meanwhile, intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are expected to continue into next week. The increase in attacks comes against the backdrop of a recent surge in Russia's oil revenues, driven by a broader geopolitical context, including the war in Iran. Following an exceptional spike in crude oil sales last week, the situation has sharply reversed. As a result, Moscow's oil revenues have plummeted by more than $1 billion in just one week.

At the beginning of next week, on April 6, a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, announced by Donald Trump, will come to an end. The U.S. President stated that the war in Iran 'is nearing its conclusion,' signaling the possibility of resuming more intense strikes over the next two to three weeks.

The United States continues to urge its partners to assist in restoring operations in the Strait of Hormuz, which could help alleviate the ongoing oil crisis. In light of the lack of support, Trump has expressed a willingness to reassess U.S. commitments to NATO, asserting that Washington is not receiving a proportional response from its allies following its assistance to Ukraine.

While the fate of the €90 billion loan remains uncertain, the European Union is expected to transfer €1.4 billion in revenues derived from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine shortly. These funds are intended to support the public sector, with approximately 95% of the financing channeled through the Ukraine Credit Cooperation Mechanism, while the remaining 5% will be allocated through the European Peace Facility.

Plenary sessions of the Verkhovna Rada are scheduled to take place from April 7 to 10. Key expectations are centered around legislative proposals necessary under the Ukrainian Fund and the cooperation program with the IMF.

Additionally, ahead of the session, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union will meet on April 7. The agenda includes discussions on legislative proposals related to the ethics of members of parliament and amendments to Ukraine's Tax Code.

Government bills proposing certain tax increases in line with IMF requirements have yet to be registered in parliament. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether they can be adopted as early as next week.

Can propaganda be considered a weapon of war? In our latest edition of Ukraine Insights, we speak with international lawyer Anna Vyshnyakova about the research 'Words that Kill' — one of the first empirical studies examining how Russian propaganda shapes the thoughts and actions of soldiers. Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

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