Latvian Military Intelligence Deems Peace Agreement Between Ukraine and Russia Unlikely
According to a report by the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD), the likelihood of a peaceful resolution between Ukraine and Russia remains low as the Kremlin's military objectives continue to falter.
As reported by Ukrinform, Delfi has cited the annual report of the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) regarding threat assessments and activities for the year 2025. The report emphasizes that the current pace of Russian advancement is insufficient to achieve the Kremlin's initial objectives, particularly the capitulation of Ukraine in the near future.
The intelligence analysis suggests that this year, Russia is likely to continue its efforts to fully occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which would hold both political and military significance. Simultaneously, the offensive operations of Russian troops in other regions of Ukraine indicate that Moscow aims to seize and maintain control over as much territory as possible, thereby weakening Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically, according to MIDD.
Officials from MIDD believe that it is quite probable that the Kremlin is prolonging peace negotiations, as it considers that it can sustain military actions longer than Ukraine. The current balance of power does not allow either side to achieve rapid progress or compel the other to make significant concessions.
While Russian armed forces continue to conduct attacks using mechanized units, the frequency and, likely, the doctrinal necessity of their deployment have significantly decreased, MIDD notes. The tactics of infantry penetration do not mitigate heavy losses in personnel, but Russia can afford this strategy as it has managed to recruit a sufficient number of new soldiers so far, according to MIDD.
The Latvian intelligence anticipates that Russia has reached the limits of voluntary conscription and will therefore be unable to significantly increase its troop numbers in Ukraine in the future without declaring full or partial compulsory mobilization.
Media outlets have highlighted that the conclusions drawn by MIDD are similar to the analysis from another Latvian security agency, the Satversme Protection Bureau, which stated that the likelihood of strategic changes on the front lines in Ukraine over the next six months is very low.
As previously reported by Ukrinform, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that successful strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian rear positions have intensified discussions within Russian military circles regarding the urgent need to conclude hostilities against Ukraine.
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