Persistent Shortage of Skilled Workers Despite Rising Labor Supply, Claims NBU

According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its April macroeconomic and monetary review for 2026, the labor supply in Ukraine experienced a faster growth rate than demand in March 2026. This occurred despite the fact that enterprises were facing significant difficulties in filling skilled positions.

The reasons behind this phenomenon include population displacement, migration, and mobilization, which have left a persistent imbalance in the labor market in Ukraine. This imbalance has resulted in a high unemployment rate, even as demand for labor continues to rise.

In March, the number of job seekers surged by 36% year-on-year, while the number of vacancies increased by only 7%. These figures were provided by the central bank, which referenced labor force participation estimates from the platform Work.ua. This imbalance has led to an average of two candidates per vacancy, a slight decrease from 2.1 in February, but significantly higher than the 1.6 recorded a year earlier.

The demand for labor remained uneven across various sectors in March, with construction emerging as the primary driver of hiring. The central bank noted that the construction sector is the only one expected to expand its workforce, supported by seasonal improvements in weather conditions and increased activity in road and infrastructure reconstruction projects.

The average monthly salary in Ukraine reached 28,300 hryvnias (approximately 650 USD) in February, according to data from the State Statistics Service cited by the NBU. This represents a nominal increase of 22.4% year-on-year and a real increase of 13.8%.

Salaries in the public sector also saw an increase, with education salaries rising by 31.1% year-on-year, and those in public administration and defense increasing by 16.7%. In industry, the fastest salary growth was recorded in sectors related to the defense industry. Salaries in the vehicle manufacturing sector associated with the military-industrial complex rose by 39.3% year-on-year. Overall, salaries in this sector have increased 2.6 times over the past two years, driven by both rising wages and increased employment.

These data indicate that despite the rising labor supply, the labor market in Ukraine is facing serious challenges, particularly a shortage of skilled personnel. This shortage could significantly impact the country's economic recovery amid and after the ongoing war.