Trump May Continue Lifting Sanctions, US Secretary of State Warns of Possible Oil Market Consequences

The administration of President Donald Trump is contemplating the continuation of sanctions relief concerning Russian oil as early as this week, according to information published by Semafor. If this decision is made, it could have serious consequences for the energy market, potentially paving the way for similar actions regarding Iranian oil.

In a report released on Thursday, April 9, it was noted that the possibility of extending sanctions relief came from former officials at the US Department of the Treasury and the State Department. In March, the US Treasury allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil that was already at sea on tankers, with deadlines set for April 11 and April 19, respectively. This decision sparked some hope in the market; however, experts assert that there has not been a significant impact on lowering oil prices as of yet.

Experts analyzing the situation indicate that the expansion of buyers for Russian and Iranian oil has enabled Moscow and Tehran to set higher prices for their energy resources. According to their estimates, Russia has earned as much as $150 million per day on certain days due to these changes. Meanwhile, a substantial portion of Iranian oil was already en route to China, further indicating shifts in the global energy market.

A number of former officials who dealt with sanctions have expressed the view that the Trump administration is likely to continue the exemption for Russian oil, which could open the door for a similar decision regarding Iranian oil. This would further demonstrate that during Trump's second term, sanctions have changed in nature. They have shifted from being a primary tool of economic pressure to an episodic means of influencing markets, raising concerns among analysts.

The report also includes comments from Edward Fishman, author of the book Chokepoints, who previously dealt with sanctions at the State Department and the Treasury during Barack Obama's presidency. Fishman expressed skepticism about the Trump administration's ability to tighten control over Russian oil, emphasizing that it is unlikely in the lead-up to the midterm elections.

It is worth recalling that on the night of March 10, Donald Trump announced his intention to lift certain oil-related sanctions in an effort to lower prices. However, he did not specify which sanctions would be lifted. On March 13, the United States issued a limited license allowing countries to purchase a portion of Russian oil and oil products that were already at sea. This license applies only to Russian oil or oil products loaded onto vessels as of March 12 and allows for their transport until April 11.

On March 15, Trump also stated that sanctions against Russian oil would be reinstated after the crisis in the Middle East is resolved. These statements and actions by the administration have sparked widespread resonance in international circles, as they could significantly impact the global oil market and energy security.