US Intelligence Warns Iran is Unlikely to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Soon

According to information provided by three sources familiar with the situation, Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. This information was disclosed by Reuters, citing secret US intelligence reports.

These secret assessments indicate that control over the waterway is Tehran's only effective leverage against the United States. Intelligence officials believe that Iran intends to limit the throughput of the strait to maintain high energy prices and to pressure US President Donald Trump into reaching a peaceful agreement.

The reports suggest that a conflict initially aimed at destroying Iran's military capabilities may actually underscore Tehran's regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten a global maritime chokepoint. Analysts have long warned that a military campaign against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could lead to a protracted ground war with significant costs for the United States.

These intelligence warnings come amid a deadlock at the United Nations Security Council over the crisis. On Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated that Moscow might veto a US-backed resolution regarding the strait, asserting that the current wording, which allows for 'all necessary defensive measures,' could legitimize aggression. China has also publicly opposed any wording that could permit the use of force, calling for a political resolution.

In response to the blockade, Tehran has proposed a 'paid passage' system in cooperation with Oman, which would require vessels to obtain special permits and licenses. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rejected this proposal, stating that international law does not recognize such schemes and emphasizing that restoring 'free freedom of navigation' is an urgent priority.

This situation raises concerns among international observers, as events in the Strait of Hormuz could have serious implications for global oil markets and regional security. Many experts believe that further escalation of the conflict could lead to new military actions, further complicating the situation.