Russians Consider Establishing a Buffer Zone in Vinnytsia Region, Says Pavlo Palisa, BBC News Ukraine

The Russian side is considering the option of creating a buffer zone in the Vinnytsia region, which may take place this spring or summer. This was stated by Brigadier General and Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Pavlo Palisa, during an interview published in RBC-Ukraine. He noted that while the Russians had previously expressed similar ideas regarding the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, their plans now also include Vinnytsia, particularly from the side of the unrecognized Transnistria.

Palisa pointed out that this is the first time the creation of a buffer zone in this region has been recorded in Russian plans. However, he urged not to panic, as he currently does not see the Russians having the strength to implement these intentions. The border line between Vinnytsia region and the unrecognized Transnistria, which is controlled by Russia, is about 50 kilometers long, with most of it running along the Dniester River and only about twenty kilometers on land. The nearest major city to the land section with Transnistria is Kryzhopil.

Military analyst and expert Mykhailo Zhirohov indicated that the topic of Transnistria periodically appears in the media space. He recalled that at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, two brigades were deployed in this region to repel possible attacks. However, according to Zhirohov, the situation in Transnistria is quite simple—the Russians do not have the capability to reinforce their forces in this region.

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, as Zhirohov explains, the Russians planned to seize the Odesa region, including Odesa, to create a logistical corridor to the south and west. However, the military grouping in Transnistria consists mainly of local residents and is small, with their weapons and equipment primarily of Soviet manufacture.

In February 2025, at the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the number of Russian troops in the unrecognized Transnistria had decreased from 5,500-6,000 to 1,500-2,500 personnel. According to him, approximately 2,500 Russians remain today, although he believes the actual figure may be even lower—around 1,000-1,500 personnel. He also noted that he does not know how the Russians withdrew their troops but believes it may have happened through Chisinau and the airport.

Following Zelensky's statement, comments emerged from Moldovan politicians expressing concern that Russia might transfer troops to Transnistria to influence the parliamentary and presidential elections in Moldova, which took place in September 2025. The then Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, told the Financial Times about Russia's plans to increase the number of troops in Transnistria to 10,000, but these plans apparently did not materialize.

Before the start of hostilities in Ukraine, the Russians had the capability to transfer their troops to Transnistria via rail connections, which passed through Ukrainian territory and Romania. However, after 2022, this opportunity was minimized. Zhirohov notes that it is theoretically possible to transfer dual-use cargoes, such as modern drones, to Transnistria, but the question arises about the availability of operators and structures capable of using them, as such specialists are absent in the Russian contingent in Transnistria.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, defensive measures have been strengthened in border areas adjacent to Transnistria. In recent months, the border with the unrecognized PMR has become even more secure. In January, the Vinnytsia Regional Military Administration reported on engineering works to enhance defensive positions and install additional mine-explosive barriers in the Tulchyn and Mohyliv-Podilskyi districts bordering Transnistria. This is being done to deter potential threats, and local residents are urged to refrain from traveling to these areas.

At the end of March, the regional command of the Territorial Defense Forces 'West' also reported on strengthening border security. Engineering and sapper units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, together with border guards from the Mohyliv-Podilskyi border detachment, have been conducting additional mining measures since March 25, 2026, to strengthen the state’s defense capabilities. The military is also installing barbed wire 'Yegosa', autonomous video surveillance and warning systems along the entire length of the border, as well as deploying additional mechanized units with armored vehicles along the border with the unrecognized PMR.

In recent years, the press has frequently mentioned a large ammunition depot in the village of Kovbasna in Transnistria; however, experts believe that the arsenals present there may be outdated and in such a condition that they are difficult to use in combat operations.