Ukrainian Sugar Exports Expected to Decrease by Nearly 20%, UAC Forecasts

Analysts from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) have released a new forecast indicating that Ukraine will reduce its sugar exports by almost 20% in the upcoming marketing year. This forecast was reported by the information agency Ukrinform, emphasizing the importance of this data for the agricultural sector of the country.

According to the forecasts, in the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to produce approximately 1.3 million tons of sugar. This figure represents a 26.3% decrease compared to the previous marketing year and is also 12.6% lower than the average sugar production over the last five years. One of the main reasons for this decline is the reduction in the area planted with sugar beets, which has decreased to 199,000 hectares, reflecting a 21.6% drop compared to the last marketing year.

Despite the reduction in acreage, the yield of sugar beets is projected to increase to 49.3 tons per hectare. This figure exceeds both last year's yield and the average yield over the past five years. The total volume of sugar beet harvest in Ukraine is forecasted at 10.2 million tons, which could positively influence domestic consumption.

An important factor affecting exports is the change in the geography of supply. Following the introduction of quotas for sugar supplies to the European Union in the 2024/2025 marketing year, sugar exports from Ukraine have decreased to 629,000 tons. A further decline in this figure is expected in the current season, which will have serious consequences for the agricultural economy.

"In the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine will export 505,000 tons of sugar, which is 19.7% less than in the previous marketing year," the UAC report states. This indicates a challenging situation in the sugar market that requires urgent responses from agricultural producers and the government.

In the previous marketing year, the main export destinations for sugar were African countries, which accounted for 32% of exports, and Middle Eastern countries, which made up 29%. The share of the European Union in total sugar exports was only 17%, indicating a decreased interest in Ukrainian sugar from European countries.

Another significant factor influencing the sugar market situation is the decline in domestic consumption. Before the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, sugar consumption was around 1.1 million tons; however, in the 2025/2026 marketing year, it is projected to decrease to 0.9 million tons. This decline is partly associated with the shrinking population in the country.

At the same time, the presence of transitional stocks at around 620,000 tons, along with sufficient yield levels, allows Ukraine to fully meet its domestic sugar demand. However, exports are likely to decrease and be redirected to traditional markets, which may impact the financial results of agricultural producers.

As previously reported, in the first half of the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine has already supplied 270,000 tons of sugar to foreign markets. This indicates that, despite the forecasts of decline, Ukrainian producers still have the opportunity to sell their products in international markets.

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