Defeat, Isn't It? Trump and the New Geopolitical Realities

Defeat. This word is typed with Caps Lock on, or in capital letters, as Donald Trump would do. The attempt to take Iran 'by surprise' has failed: the United States of America 'blinked' first, and this has become a symbolic moment in the new geopolitical reality.

Recently, bombers took off from British bases but quickly returned at the request of the 'workers' — in this case, the leadership of Pakistan, which offered Trump a 'Twitter shoulder' by asking him 'not to bomb.' This indicates that the United States has suffered an interim, yet very painful defeat. Yes, the battle is lost, but not the entire world-systemic war. However, this battle is significant, one of the key ones in the new global configuration.

Today, the Persian Gulf can confidently be renamed the Iranian or Sino-Iranian Gulf. Although 'Persian' sounds symbolic, as it is a region where the United States has traditionally dominated. The Middle East, like a ripe apple, is falling into the hands of China, signaling the beginning of the decline of the petrodollar and the dawn of a new era of oil yuan. The era in which the United States were the undisputed leaders in this region has come to an end.

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf are likely to shift towards closer ties with Beijing. India will also move towards rapprochement with China, which will strengthen Beijing's position in the region. Pakistan, in turn, will enhance its sovereignty and limited partnership with China, which is an obvious signal of changes in regional politics.

Turkey, for its part, will begin a process of sovereignty and will aim to create its regional cluster with Syria and Azerbaijan. This could lead to new geopolitical conflicts, as the march towards Central Asia is currently on hold. Central Asia, in turn, may begin a progressive integration into a Mongolian Empire 2.0, centered in China, which will create new challenges for Western states.

ASEAN countries are also awaiting transformation into an industrial semi-periphery of China, confirming Beijing's growing influence on the global economy. China is becoming the core of a Pan-Asian world-system, forming a new Mongolian Empire 2.0 that will stretch from the Yellow Sea to the Black Sea, covering 8,000 kilometers along the parallel.

Amid these changes, the European Union is trying to overcome geopolitical loneliness through a new partnership with China. The United States, in turn, will gradually close itself off in the Western Hemisphere within the framework of the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, which could have serious consequences for global politics.

In this situation, the question arises: what will Israel do? One could joke that it will join the SCO and BRICS, but in reality, Israel will have to rely on its own strength. Historical evolution over 5,000 years has taught it to survive independently, and now Israel needs to prepare for the emergence of nuclear weapons in Turkey and Iran, which could change the balance of power in the Islamic world.

Turkey and Iran will now compete in the Islamic world for a share of anti-Israeli rhetoric, which could lead to new conflicts in the region. Trump, for his part, has done what I wrote about earlier: he followed an counterintuitive scenario, that is, the option of 'we are tired, we are leaving.' The curtain falls. Defeat. The end of an era. Time to break patterns and stereotypes. The death of linear thinking.

The text is published with the author's permission.