Ceasefire in Iran: The US and Iran Reach a 40-Day War Agreement

The United States and Iran have successfully negotiated a ceasefire agreement that will last for two weeks. While the specific terms of the ceasefire remain undisclosed, it is confirmed that Israel has also agreed to comply with this arrangement and cease its bombardments of Iranian territory. During this two-week period, both Iran and the United States are expected to resume negotiations aimed at establishing a lasting peace and addressing critical issues such as regional security, Iran's missile-nuclear program, and the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

This ceasefire is not viewed as a definitive resolution to the ongoing conflict, as neither side considers itself to be defeated. The Iranian issue remains unresolved even after more than a month of intense fighting. Notably, the mediators involved in the negotiations have changed; instead of Qatar and Oman, which have been targets of missile strikes, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have stepped in as peace brokers.

Additionally, two controversial statements regarding the ceasefire have emerged. Washington, through former President Donald Trump, announced that the United States has "fulfilled all its military objectives" in Iran and that a long-term peace treaty in the Middle East will now be signed. Trump also indicated that Iran agreed to the ceasefire on the condition of the "immediate" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels. Furthermore, he stated that the Iranian "10 points," received the day before, could serve as a working basis for further negotiations.

The Iranian National Security Council released a statement claiming that the United States has accepted all of Iran's demands and that the Iranian "10 points" published in the media will form the foundation for negotiations. Iranian media outlets have widely reported on the defeat of the United States and Israel in this war, as well as Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz. The ten points are as follows:

1. The cancellation of all primary and secondary sanctions against Iran.

2. The maintenance of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

3. The withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East.

4. The cessation of all hostilities against Iran.

5. The unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad.

6. The guarantee of an agreement with the United States through a United Nations Security Council resolution.

7. The preservation of Iran's right to enrich uranium on its territory.

8. Guarantees against future aggression towards Iran.

9. The cessation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

10. The retention of enriched uranium on Iranian territory.

It is difficult to imagine that the United States agreed to all these points, which were the very reasons this war began a month ago. It is equally hard to believe that the Iranians capitulated to the United States and accepted their demands. Judging by the criticism directed at Trump from both hawks and Democrats, the terms of the ceasefire have not satisfied them, indicating a lack of mutual concessions.

The situation in Israel is also ambiguous. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he accepts the ceasefire with Iran but emphasized that Tehran is not an "existential threat" to Israel. However, he asserted that the ceasefire does not pertain to the territory of Lebanon and Hezbollah, which contradicts the statements made by the Iranians and Pakistani mediators. The opposition in Israel has criticized Netanyahu, noting that he has not achieved his military objectives and that the terms of the ceasefire are unfavorable for Israel.

Both Iranian and American sources confirm that peace negotiations are set to resume on April 10. As this date approaches, it is likely that more details will emerge regarding the basis for negotiations, the actual starting positions of the parties involved, and the power dynamics in the region following the war. It cannot be ruled out that hostilities may resume if diplomatic efforts fail again or if the parties use negotiations as a diversionary tactic, as has occurred in the past.

In summary of the 40-day war between the United States and Israel against Iran, it can be said that both Israel and Iran have achieved tactical victories. Israel has met some military objectives and significantly weakened the Iranians, thanks to support from the United States. Conversely, Iran has endured a challenging confrontation with a superior adversary, demonstrating its ability to withstand strikes throughout the war and maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, positioning itself as the "Egypt" of the Persian Gulf.

For the United States, the outcomes of the war are contentious. On one hand, from a military perspective, the US has weakened Iran, but the political objectives of the war have not been achieved. Billions of dollars have been spent on bombardments without clear results, and the resulting armament deficit will require years to recover. The Gulf monarchies have also faced defeat, as their traditional national security concept, based on faith in the American umbrella, has collapsed. They have become the primary "punching bag" in this narrative, and their investment climate will suffer from the war's repercussions, even if a long-term peace can be achieved. If Iran retains control over Hormuz, the entire oil and gas export from these countries will become dependent on Tehran's goodwill, which poses the worst-case scenario for the geopolitical interests of the Gulf monarchies. This will compel them to invest substantial resources in constructing alternative logistics, such as through the Red Sea or the Mediterranean coast via Iraq and Syria.

In Iran, a change of power has also occurred. The transfer of power took place amidst the war and with the direct involvement of the United States and Israel, which created conditions for the military and political wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to seize power in Iran. The Islamic Republic has not fallen, but it is now led by a collective, more pragmatic leadership that lacks a strong religious bias.