NBU Estimates Export Losses of Ore and Grain Due to Logistics Shelling at $850 Million in Q4 2025

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ukraine suffered serious losses in exports due to the shelling of its logistical infrastructure, particularly affecting ports and railways. According to estimates from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), these losses are around $850 million, with $150 million attributed to iron ore exports and $700 million to grain exports. This information was disclosed by Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, the director of the NBU's monetary policy and economic analysis department, during an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine agency.

Lepushynskyi noted that in the first quarter of 2026, losses from shelling were still present but were significantly lower due to the rapid restoration of logistical routes. This indicates that the Ukrainian economy is attempting to adapt to new conditions despite the ongoing security threats.

The National Bank of Ukraine views these losses as temporary and hopes for a recovery in export volumes throughout 2026, provided that security risks do not lead to critical damage to maritime logistics facilities. Lepushynskyi emphasized the importance of preserving infrastructure that is crucial for exports, as its loss would greatly complicate recovery efforts.

He also pointed out that changes in the enemy's shelling tactics have become evident: whereas previously the focus was on massive strikes against energy facilities, the enemy has now shifted to more targeted attacks on logistics and port infrastructure. In the first three months of 2026, there were 11 recorded attacks on port infrastructure, which is only two fewer than the total for all of 2025 and seven fewer than in 2024. This suggests that the threat to Ukrainian logistics remains at a high level.

In March 2026, there were also 21 attacks on the railway, marking a significant increase compared to previous months: 13 attacks in January and 18 in February. These figures indicate that the enemy continues to attempt to destabilize the Ukrainian economy through strikes on critical infrastructure.

According to the NBU, overall goods exports from Ukraine in 2025 decreased by 2.7%, or $1 billion, to $38.3 billion. This decline follows a 12.3% increase in 2024, highlighting the serious challenges faced by the Ukrainian economy amid ongoing war and shelling.

Thus, the export situation in Ukraine remains tense, and further actions aimed at restoring logistics and protecting infrastructure will be critically important for the recovery of economic stability in the country.