ISW Disputes Russian Claims of Complete Control Over Luhansk Region: Ukrainian Forces Maintain Control of Key Settlements

On April 1, 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense released another statement claiming that Russian forces have allegedly taken complete control of the Luhansk region. This announcement marks the third such claim since the onset of the full-scale invasion, and its accuracy is called into question by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), who have conducted a detailed analysis of the current situation on the front lines.

According to ISW, Russian forces have controlled a significant portion of the Luhansk region since October 2022. However, as of April 1, 2026, data collected by analysts from open sources indicate that Russian forces actually control only 99.84% of the territory of Luhansk. Notably, two settlements—Nadiya and Novoyehorivka, located to the east of Borova in the Kharkiv region—remain free and are not under the control of the occupiers. These settlements are marked as a 'green' zone on DeepState maps, confirming their status.

ISW also reminds that over the years of the war, Russian officials have repeatedly claimed full control over the Luhansk region. For instance, in July 2022, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu first announced the capture of the region, and the head of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, reiterated this claim in June 2025. Later, in October 2025, Vladimir Putin asserted that Ukrainian forces controlled only 0.13% of the Luhansk region, a statement that also does not reflect the reality on the ground.

Experts at ISW explain that while Russian forces have indeed controlled most of the Luhansk region since the fall of 2022, when the frontline stabilized after Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv, the Kremlin's claims of complete control in 2025 and 2026 are exaggerations of minor changes on the battlefield. This narrative aims to create a false impression of rapid progress by Russian troops.

These inflated claims by the Kremlin regarding the capture of the Luhansk region are part of a broader information campaign by Russia, analysts at ISW note. The goal of this campaign is to create an illusion of urgency to pressure Ukraine into conceding unoccupied parts of the Donetsk region. Thus, the recent statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense about the alleged complete capture of Luhansk is part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare aimed at portraying Ukrainian defense as 'on the brink of collapse' and urging the U.S. and other partners of Kyiv to compel Ukraine to unjustifiably cede territory.

On March 31, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian Defense Forces from unoccupied territories in the Donetsk region within two months—by the end of May 2026. Zelensky emphasized that the Kremlin is attempting to create the impression of an inevitable capture of Donbas by making new, tougher demands if Ukraine does not comply. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated these demands on April 1, stating that Zelensky must decide on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas 'today,' ideally 'yesterday.' Russian State Duma Deputy Andrey Kolesnik even claimed that Zelensky should have withdrawn troops from the Donetsk region 'the day before yesterday,' while his colleague Alexey Chepa asserted that failure to meet this demand could lead to new conditions, including the withdrawal of troops from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as the transfer of Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv to Russia.

Such threats from the Kremlin regarding the 'inevitable' military capture of the Donetsk region are not new. ISW reminds that Russian officials regularly refer to Odesa and Kharkiv as 'Russian' cities. The Kremlin has been making these demands for years, but is likely intensifying them now due to stalled negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.

However, ISW analysts emphasize that Russian statements about the ability of the RF to easily capture the remaining territories of the Donetsk region are absurd and do not reflect the realities on the battlefield. The situation on the front lines and recent successes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces indicate that significant Russian gains are not inevitable, especially against well-fortified cities in the 'fortress belt' of the Donetsk region.

The Russian military command has previously set ambitious timelines for capturing the Ukrainian fortress city belt, yet the occupying army has repeatedly failed to meet these objectives. Ukraine's successes in 2026, particularly during counterattacks in the south, are likely to further disrupt Russia's preparations for a spring-summer offensive. Zelensky noted on April 1 that the occupiers have failed to achieve their goals in the Donetsk region and have been forced to postpone their planned timelines once again.

Furthermore, Russian forces have been unable to leverage their years of control over most of the Luhansk region to successfully advance on Sloviansk or Izium from the east or northeast. The advance of the occupiers has effectively slowed since the beginning of 2026, and Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to counter Russian initiatives on the battlefield and successfully counterattack at various points along the front lines.

On April 1, the Third Assault Brigade refuted the claims made by the Russian Ministry of Defense that the occupiers have allegedly captured the entire Luhansk region. In Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka, the forces of the Third Assault Brigade continue to hold their ground despite all attempts by the Russians to seize the region through military and 'virtual' means using lies and fake news.