Iran at a Crossroads: Will Tehran Choose the 'Cup of Poison'?

Igor Semivolos, the director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, emphasizes that the situation in Iran requires a special approach, as the traditional model of state rationalism cannot adequately explain the internal logic of the Iranian system. This logic is encoded in the concept of Maslahat, which signifies state expediency, and in the political theology of the Islamic Republic, it takes precedence over any formal law when it comes to the survival of the Nizam – the system itself.

It is crucial to understand that in the Iranian context, there is a fundamental difference between Dowlati, which represents the state as an institution, economy, and welfare, and Nizam, which is a revolutionary project and the identity of the regime. When the need for choice arises, Islamists are always ready to sacrifice economic interests for the sake of preserving the Nizam.

Today, there is a serious danger as a logic of 'total escalation will save the Nizam' may take hold within the system. This could manifest in mobilizing the population around national symbols or forcing the United States to retreat. In such a case, no economic or humanitarian losses would serve as a deterrent to decision-making.

However, it is essential to remember one important nuance: in 1988, Ayatollah Khomeini also appealed to the concept of Maslahat and chose the 'cup of poison,' meaning a path of de-escalation, when he realized that continuing the war threatened the Nizam's destruction more quickly than capitulation. This precedent is significant for the current situation.

Therefore, the key question that arises today is not abstract but very concrete: who in the Iranian system has the final word, and what reality does Khamenei perceive, if he indeed has the ability to do so? If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) filters the information that reaches the top, the risk of catastrophic miscalculation increases exponentially.

We hope that this situation is understood in the capitals of coalition countries, recognizing the potential consequences of their actions. Today's decisions could determine not only the fate of Iran but also impact the global economy, which is already experiencing significant upheavals.

This article was published with the author's permission and contains important insights regarding the current situation in Iran and its implications for global politics.