Russia's Federal Budget Faces Deficit of 4.576 Trillion Rubles

Russia's federal budget for the period from January to March 2026 has once again been recorded with a significant deficit of 4.576 trillion rubles. This information was published in an article by The Moscow Times, which has sparked considerable resonance among economists and analysts.

According to the publication, in the first quarter of 2026, budget revenues totaled 8.309 trillion rubles, while expenditures were 1.5 times higher, reaching 12.885 trillion rubles. This disparity has resulted in a situation where, without adequate tax revenues, every third ruble of expenditures remains unfunded. The budget deficit compared to the same period last year has increased by 133% and exceeded the planned annual expenditures by 700 billion rubles.

Particular attention is drawn to the decline in oil and gas revenues, which have decreased by 45%, reaching their lowest level since the onset of the pandemic at 1.445 trillion rubles. Despite an increase in taxes, revenues from non-commodity sectors of the economy have only risen by 7.1%, amounting to 6.866 trillion rubles. As a result, total budget revenues have decreased by 8.2%, while expenditures have surged by 17%, indicating serious financial troubles for the country.

Economists note that Russian tax legislation is structured in such a way that oil and gas revenues respond with a certain delay to changes in oil prices. "Therefore, the effect of soaring oil prices will only be felt by the Russian budget in April. The average price of Urals in March, which will be accounted for in the calculations of April taxes, was $77 per barrel, which will bring an additional 215-220 billion rubles in mineral extraction taxes," the publication states.

Forecasts from Russian experts suggest that in April, the Russian budget is expected to receive around 1 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues, which is twice the average for the first three months of the year. This may provide some relief for the financial situation, but the overall picture remains alarming.

Additionally, it is worth noting that revenues from oil and gas in March 2026 compared to March 2025 decreased by 464 billion rubles, reaching 617 billion rubles. In 2025, revenues from oil and gas fell by 24% compared to 2024, from 11.13 trillion rubles to 8.48 trillion rubles (approximately $108.03 billion) due to falling oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. This marks the lowest level since 2020.

Oil and gas revenues remain the primary source of funding for the Kremlin, accounting for about a quarter of all federal budget revenues. In 2024, the Russian budget received 11.13 trillion rubles from oil and gas, underscoring the importance of this sector to the country's economy.

Thus, the situation with Russia's budget in the first quarter of 2026 indicates serious financial challenges facing the country. The decline in oil and gas revenues coupled with rising expenditures jeopardizes the stability of the budget and the overall economic situation.