Ukraine's Business Recovery Index Turns Negative for First Time Since 2023 as Orders Collapse

Ukraine’s Business Recovery Index fell to -0.11 in April – its worst reading since March 2023 – as order portfolios shrank to just 2.9 months and medium-term uncertainty deepened. Yet the same survey found actual output rising for a second consecutive month and export activity recovering sharply from a weak March, pointing to a split between what businesses are producing now and what they expect ahead. Make us preferred on Google Flip Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied (Image by Depositphotos) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Ukraine’s Business Recovery Index turned negative for the first time since March 2023, dropping to -0.11 in April as order portfolios collapsed to their shortest in months and medium-term uncertainty climbed, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting’s (IER) 48th monthly New Monthly Enterprises Survey (NRES). The index tracks the pulse, expectations, and challenges of Ukrainian industrial enterprises during wartime, covering up to 500 enterprises across 21 regions. The reading comes as Ukraine’s central bank, the NBU, has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% following a near-stall in the first quarter, and the State Statistics Service recorded a 0.5% year-on-year GDP contraction in Q1 2026. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . The index had hovered near zero for three months before turning negative. Forward demand also shrank: the average order portfolio collapsed to 2.9 months from 3.8 months in March – a new survey low. In a press release, IER Chief Executive Oksana Kuziakiv notes that 29% of enterprises are now operating with no forward orders at all. “The share of companies working effectively ‘from the wheel’ grew to 29%, as did the share of companies with orders only one to two months forward, to 33%. Meanwhile, the share of enterprises with order portfolios of six to 11 months almost halved, to 10%, which may signal caution among counterparties regarding medium-term commitments,” Kuziakiv is quoted as saying. Other Topics of Interest The Secret Reason Russian Banks Are About to Fail Many people look at the current state of global affairs and wonder how the Russian financial system appears to be surviving despite unprecedented pressure. Six-month uncertainty climbed for the second consecutive month, with the share of companies unable to forecast the general economic environment rising from 20.1% to 28%, and those unable to forecast their own financial-economic situation rising from 19.3% to 25.3%. Yet April was not uniformly grim. Industrial capacity utilization remained stable, with the combined share of enterprises operating at full or near-full capacity – defined as 75% to 99% of pre-war levels – held at 60% in April, unchanged from March. Actual production results improved for the second consecutive month, with the production change index rising from 0.02 to 0.18, as the share of companies increasing output grew from 18.1% to 26.6%. Export activity rebounded sharply, with the share of enterprises reporting export growth rising from 16.3% to 26.9%. Pricing expectations also eased, with the share of companies anticipating input price growth falling from 64.4% to 51.6%. “The business sector continues to demonstrate operational resilience even amid a prolonged war and high uncertainty. At the same time, medium-term business expectations have weakened somewhat due to slow economic recovery, a labor shortage, and growing cost pressures,” Kuziakiv says. Olena Hrazhdan is the Business Reporter at Kyiv Post, covering Ukraine’s markets, business, and economic policy. While she reports broadly on economic issues, her core focus is banking, finance, monetary and fiscal policy. Olena previously wrote for leading Ukrainian business media and became a Fellow of the International Monetary Fund’s Journalism Fellowship in 2024.