Putin Is Bluffing About Ending the War, Analyst Says

American analyst Paul Goble says Putin’s claim that the war in Ukraine may be nearing an end is not a real peace signal, but a political tactic. He argues Putin is trying to calm Russians after a slimmed-down Victory Day parade, buy time, confuse Western publics and reduce support for Ukraine. If the war continues, Goble says Putin will blame NATO and claim the West prevented peace. Make us preferred on Google Flip Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Naryn-Kala fortress in Derbent in Russia's Republic of Dagestan on June 28, 2023. (Photo by Sergei Savostyanov / SPUTNIK / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest claim that the war in Ukraine may be nearing an end came after a slimmed-down Victory Day parade in Moscow and at a moment when the Kremlin is trying to move past the embarrassment of a war that has not delivered the triumph it once promised. Putin said that he believed the war was “coming to an end,” while again blaming NATO expansion and the West for the conflict. He also suggested that Europe’s future security architecture could be discussed and floated former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as a possible interlocutor. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . American analyst Paul Goble believes Putin is not primarily speaking to the West –he is trying to manage his own public. “Putin is floating the idea that his war in Ukraine may be nearing an end not because that is happening,” Goble told Kyiv Post, “but rather he wants to calm some in Russia about what is happening in Ukraine.” According to Goble, the Kremlin leader is using this language as a tactic to gain more time and confuse public opinion. The goal is not to prepare Russians for peace, but to reassure them that the situation is under control after months of battlefield strain, economic pressure and a Victory Day display that underscored limits rather than strength. Putin’s message, Goble said, is also designed to “keep the West off balance.” Other Topics of Interest EU Has No Unified Position on Russia Talks, Kallas Says EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc has not yet agreed on a common approach to negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. She warned Moscow is not acting in good faith and said the EU is not ready to enter talks. The comments reflect ongoing debate within Europe over diplomatic strategy and coordination among member states. By hinting that the war could be approaching its conclusion, Putin is hoping to encourage hesitation among Ukraine’s partners, especially those debating whether to expand military support for Kyiv. Goble said Putin wants to “reduce the willingness of many countries to support Ukraine more vigorously.” That, he argued, is part of a familiar Kremlin maneuver: speak of peace just loudly enough to make others pause, while continuing to pursue the same objectives on the battlefield. Putin is also preparing a blame narrative in advance, Goble noted. He wants to “set up a situation where if the war doesn’t end quickly, he will blame others, NATO in the first instance,” Goble said, “declaring that he wanted to end the war but the West is preventing it.” For Goble, there is nothing surprising in the tactic. “Classic Putin statecraft,” he said, “and no one should be surprised by any of this.” The analyst argued that Putin is worried about dissatisfaction inside Russia.  “Putin is troubled by opposition at home,” Goble said, “but not enough to change policies as such, only to change the way in which he and his propagandists present the challenges.” In other words, the Kremlin’s tone may shift, but its aims do not. “Again, absolutely nothing new,” Goble said. “Unfortunately, every time he does this, the West falls victim to his plot, just as he intends,” Goble concluded. Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.