Estonia rebuffs Ukraine's warnings of Russian attack on Baltic states

Prefer on Google by Martin Fornusek An Estonian soldier with Estonian and Ukrainian flag patches near a Boeing Apache AH-64 attack helicopter during Exercise Hedgehog 25 at Amari Air Base, Estonia, on May 15, 2025. (Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg via Getty Images) Estonian officials have pushed back against Kyiv's warnings of a potential Russian attack on the Baltic states, warning that such rhetoric could do more harm than good. President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested on April 19 that Russia' s online crackdown may be a prelude to a mobilization of conscripts and a new offensive, either against Ukraine or the Baltic countries . "Why? Because some countries, for example, in the Baltics, are not ready for strong resistance," Zelensky said in a television interview. The warning followed a series of threats by Moscow and its allies aimed at Ukraine's European partners, namely, the Baltic nations. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that "there is no imminent threat to Baltic states." "Russia is unlikely to launch a military attack against any NATO member state in the near term, largely because European allies, and NATO as a whole, have significantly increased the costs and risks associated with such aggression," the minister told the Kyiv Independent on April 20. Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, cautioned against inadvertently aiding Moscow's efforts to erode trust among NATO allies. "Our Ukrainian friends need to understand that repeatedly portraying the Baltic states as Russia's possible next victim — while overlooking NATO or underestimating our own independent defense capabilities — does not create or reinforce a narrative that would help Ukraine itself or others in pushing back against Russian war-driven imperialism," the lawmaker told the Kyiv Independent on April 21. The Baltics have been in the crosshairs of Russian officials in recent days. Sergei Shoigu , secretary of Russia's Security Council, said on April 16 that Moscow had the "right to self-defense" if the Baltic states or Finland allowed Ukrainian drones to strike Russia via their airspace —  an accusation the Baltic governments rejected. Last week Moscow also threatened " unpredictable consequences " to countries cooperating with Kyiv in drone production, claiming states like Latvia are turning into Ukraine's "strategic rear." Similarly, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a Kremlin ally, said Minsk would deploy "everything we have" in the event of "aggression" by the Baltic nations, Poland, or Ukraine. Moscow's threats to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — three NATO members on Russia's doorstep — are nothing new. Yet this time, they come amid an unprecedented rift in transatlantic relations. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to exit NATO over Europe's refusal to join the war on Iran. Notably, Tallinn was among the few governments willing to discuss with the U.S. ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime trade corridor shut down by Tehran. The U.S. leader has also ended fresh aid allocations to Kyiv and threatened to annex Greenland , which belongs to a NATO ally, Denmark. The tensions have raised concerns about the vulnerability of NATO’s eastern flank and cast doubt on Washington’s adherence to Article 5. Yet, the Baltic countries have been adamant that the collective defense principle remains ironclad. According to Mihkelson, Russia is deploying its information warfare methods to drive a wedge among NATO allies. "One key element of Russia's influence operations is to erode trust among allies and create divisions that would cast doubt on the application of the collective defense clause," the lawmaker said. "Knowing this, it would be unwise for us to inadvertently assist Russia in these efforts." Mihkelson argues that rather than "waiting for Russian imperialist aggression to expand toward NATO," the West needs to focus on helping Ukraine defeat Russia "already now." "We maintain our vigilance. Deterrence must be continuously strengthened so that Russia clearly understands that any potential military action would not only fail but also carry serious consequences," Tsahkna said.