Belarus Militarizing but Unlikely to Launch Independent Attack on Ukraine

An opposition figure said Belarus is preparing for war but lacks the capacity to act independently, while Ukrainian officials report no immediate danger. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied This handout video grab released by the Russian Defense Ministry on February 12, 2022, shows rocket launcher systems Smerch (Tornado) during joint exercises of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus as part of an inspection of the Union State’s Response Force, at a firing range near Brest. (Photo by Russian Defense Ministry / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Belarus is actively militarizing, reforming its mobilization system, and psychologically preparing society for war, but an independent attack by its armed forces on Ukraine remains unlikely, Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushko said. Speaking on the sidelines of a session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in Strasbourg, Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, said recent changes in Belarus’s military and political systems indicate preparations for potential conflict, Ukrinform reported on Friday. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . Latushko said decision‑making authority on deploying Belarusian forces has shifted to the All‑Belarusian People’s Assembly, a body of about 1,200 delegates appointed by President Alexander Lukashenko . According to Latushko, Belarus’s mobilization reserve now numbers around 289,000 people, with plans to expand it to 85,000. Including approximately 150,000 members of the territorial defense, total available forces could reach nearly half a million troops. “Training in Belarus never stops,” Latushko said, citing constant military exercises, recent combat‑readiness inspections, the creation of a Southern Operational Command, and the delivery of 4,600 new weapons systems in 2024 as indicators of preparation for war. He also pointed to a 32% increase in defense spending over the past year. Despite these developments, Latushko said the Belarusian army lacks both the capability and motivation to launch an independent offensive against Ukraine, arguing that Lukashenko fears losing power if Belarus becomes directly involved in the war. Other Topics of Interest Trump Announces 3-Week Extension of Israel-Lebanon Truce The extension builds on a 10‑day ceasefire agreed earlier this week as Washington presses for de‑escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border. “To play the role of Putin’s assistant - yes, Lukashenko will always do that. Just as it was in 2022, but to launch an aggression on his own - that’s unrealistic,” Latushko said, recalling Belarus’s role in facilitating Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He added that Belarus does possess special operations forces, some of which have undergone training with the Wagner Group , but said they would likely operate alongside Russian forces rather than as a primary attacking force. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned last week that recent developments in Belarus could signal preparations for a dangerous new escalation in the war. However, Kyrylo Budanov , head of Ukraine’s military intelligence , has said Kyiv is closely monitoring developments in Belarus but does not expect any sudden escalation from Belarusian forces. Veronika Sukhanych is a political analyst with a foundation in governance, legal research, and international policy. Kyiv-born and educated in comparative politics, her background includes research on global financial institutions, responsible AI governance, and security policy.