'They Are Testing Us' — How Russia's Mass Attack Tactics Are Evolving as Ukraine Strives to Protect Civilians

At the railway station platform in Brovary, Kyiv region, people wait for their train while a fire rages in a residential area, ignited by a Russian missile strike on March 14, 2026. This incident exemplifies the continuous pressure Russia exerts on Ukraine as the country seeks to protect its citizens from mass attacks.

Following a harsh winter, Ukraine has had no time to recover, as Russia launched nearly 6,500 drones in March alone, surpassing the total number of drones used in the previous two months, showing no signs of slowing down. 'Russia's tactics are evolving towards more sustainable, flexible, and psychologically exhausting pressure,' stated Viktor Kevlyuk, a reserve colonel and analyst at the Defense Strategies Center, in an interview with Kyiv Independent.

For over four years of full-scale aggression, Russia has steadily increased its arms production and continues to implement new types of weaponry and tactics, especially in the air. Although Russian forces maintain a numerical and technological advantage over Ukraine in aviation, strike drones, and munitions, Ukrainian air defense systems—most of which are supplied by Western countries—have prevented Russia from gaining air superiority in Ukraine, forcing it to rely on long-range drone and missile strikes.

However, even with effective Ukrainian drone interceptors, a significant portion of the country's critical infrastructure remains vulnerable to ballistic missiles, as international partners have not provided enough modern air defense systems to counter them. Ukraine does not have a ready solution, and Russia continues its relentless air campaign this spring, increasingly targeting civilian and critical infrastructure both day and night.

The tactic of mass attacks—launching a large number of drones simultaneously to overwhelm air defense systems—is not new. Yet, in just one year, Russia has significantly expanded the number of drones it can deploy for these missions. In the first three months of 2026, Moscow launched over 15,800 drones, nearly 50% more than in the same period last year, according to estimates by Kyiv Independent based on daily reports from the Ukrainian Air Force.

Moreover, on March 23-24, Russia launched nearly 1,000 drones against Ukraine in a single day, marking the largest drone attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Russian forces also fired 34 missiles of various types, striking 11 regions in eastern and western Ukraine. Four people were killed, and dozens more were injured during the mass attack.

During the assault, Ukrainian forces shot down 931 Russian aerial targets, accounting for 94.8% of the total, and intercepted 25 of the 34 missiles, demonstrating high effectiveness, reported the Air Force. However, missiles remain the primary threat, as Ukrainian air defense systems are significantly less capable of stopping them compared to drones.

Moscow launched over 150% more missiles at Ukraine in the first three months of 2026 than in the same period last year, according to estimates by Kyiv Independent based on publicly available data from the Air Force. 'They are just constantly keeping us on edge,' noted Anatoliy Hrapchynskyi, deputy director of an electronic warfare company and reserve officer of the Air Force.

Hrapchynskyi also described the changes in Russia's use of ballistic missiles as 'significant.' He informed Kyiv Independent that while ballistic missiles accounted for 35% of Moscow's strikes during mass attacks at the end of 2025, their share rose to 65% at the beginning of 2026. This spring, unlike the winter of 2025-2026, destructive attacks, such as those on March 23-24, are increasingly carried out during the day when most people are at work or school, putting the civilian population at even greater risk.

The latest attack on April 3 involved the launch of hundreds of drones and missiles on Friday morning. '(The Russians) are testing us,' said Yuriy Ihnat, head of the communications department of the Air Force. 'The question is how many resources they can afford to use?' Ihnat also noted that if they could continuously launch a thousand drones a day, they would do so. For now, they are just keeping us on edge constantly.

Kevlyuk supported Ihnat's view, stating that the surge in daytime attacks aims to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems by 'spreading' the strikes throughout the day. Russian forces are also continuously altering their flight paths to identify weaknesses, and the psychological pressure on civilians plays a significant role, added Kevlyuk. '(Their) goal is to create a sense of constant danger,' the analyst said, adding that the increase in daytime attacks may indicate that nighttime strikes are not achieving the desired results.

These changes are part of a broader strategy amid the spring-summer offensive on the front: to exhaust Ukrainian air defense systems, force resources to shift from the front to the rear, and create a sense of hopelessness, he said. During a briefing with journalists in Kyiv on April 2, President Volodymyr Zelensky once again warned that Russia is preparing a new wave of attacks targeting water supply systems and urged Ukrainian local authorities to prepare for potential disruptions.

'This concerns critical infrastructure such as bridges, dams, hydroelectric power stations, as well as pumping stations, water supply systems, and other facilities,' he noted. 'We must prepare for this just as we are currently preparing to protect the energy sector.' This spring, Russian forces have also intensified attacks on moving trains, prompting Ukrainian railways, also known as Ukrzaliznytsia, to implement new security measures—stopping trains during air alerts or when aerial targets approach. As a result, some services are delayed for several hours, and passengers are forced to spend the night outdoors.