Interconnected Wars in Iran and Ukraine: Growing Interdependence of Conflicts
The wars in Iran and Ukraine are increasingly intertwining, with analysts suggesting that these two military conflicts are beginning to merge. This was reported by the British newspaper The Guardian on Thursday, April 2.
The ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine are becoming more intertwined, to the extent that a number of analysts are stating that these two military conflicts are starting to merge. This was reported by the British newspaper The Guardian on Thursday, April 2.
The authors of the publication emphasize that it is difficult to predict the impact one war will have on the development of the other; however, it is already evident that their interconnection is drawing more countries into both conflicts. From Ukraine's perspective, this connection is not new, as Russia began using Iranian Shahed drones as early as September 2022. What is new is Moscow's response concerning Tehran—there is now a flow of intelligence data, guidance systems, and drones coming from Russia to Iran.
Another interregional link between the two conflicts was revealed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's trip to the Middle East, during which agreements on security cooperation were signed. The wars in Ukraine and Iran also intersect in global energy markets, as noted by The Guardian. The closure of shipping in the Persian Gulf due to the Strait of Hormuz has benefited Moscow, provoking a sharp spike in oil and gas prices. This turn of events has acted as a lifeline for the Russian economy, which has been under increasing pressure. Additionally, the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump eased some restrictions on the export of Russian oil, the authors remind.
These two conflicts have become so intertwined that what happens on one battlefield now has a clear impact on the other—a fact emphasized by European countries attempting to avoid getting entangled in the expanding war in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reluctant to acknowledge this interconnection, continuing to grant Moscow preferences despite increasingly compelling evidence of Russia's assistance to Iran.
“However, the deepening of Russian intervention in Iran's defense will exert new pressure on pro-Russian sentiments within Trump's administration,” The Guardian writes. For the Kremlin, supporting Tehran allows it to restore its geopolitical positions following a series of setbacks.
Interconnected regional conflicts are still far from escalating into a world war, according to William Spaniel, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. However, he emphasized in a comment to the publication that they further link the outcomes of military actions and will have long-term consequences for how front lines will be divided.
On March 26, President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia. Subsequently, he announced the signing of a defense cooperation agreement between the defense ministries of the two countries. On March 28, the Ukrainian leader visited the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, where he met with state leaders. Zelensky announced that Ukraine signed a 10-year strategic cooperation agreement with Qatar, as well as the future signing of a similar agreement with the Emirates.
On March 29, Zelensky discussed security issues with King Abdullah II of Jordan. On March 30, he reported that during negotiations with leaders of Gulf states, Ukraine had agreed on mutual assistance in the fields of defense and energy. This includes 10-year contracts, particularly regarding the supply of maritime drones.