The US and Israel's War with Iran: Are We on the Brink of World War III?

The ongoing war has spread beyond Iran, affecting numerous countries in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Azerbaijan, the occupied West Bank, Cyprus, Syria, Qatar, and Lebanon. Amid such escalation, many experts are beginning to ponder the possibility of transforming a regional conflict into a full-scale global war, especially in light of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which involves major world players.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his belief in February that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already initiated World War III. This statement has sparked discussions among analysts and politicians about whether we are indeed on the brink of a global conflict. As noted by Margaret MacMillan, an honorary professor of international history at Oxford University, people often assume that wars are meticulously planned; however, many of them begin accidentally due to miscalculations regarding opponents.

MacMillan cites the example of World War I, which started as a result of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. This assassination acted as a catalyst for a system of alliances that rapidly drew Europe into conflict. According to the professor, what followed led to a global catastrophe, and today we can observe similar risks in the modern world.

The United States and Israel are targeting key facilities related to Iran's nuclear program, as well as Iranian oil and gas installations. Joe Maiolo, a professor of international history at King's College London, defines a world war as a full-scale war involving all major powers. He points out that during World War I, it was European imperial states, while during World War II, the United States, Japan, and China joined in.

Currently, many perceive the tensions in the Middle East as predominantly regional; however, the question remains: are there conditions for a broader escalation? Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Putin has already started World War III, and the only response should be powerful military and economic pressure on Russia to force it to retreat. 'I believe that Putin has already begun it. The question is how much territory he can seize and how to stop him... Russia wants to impose a different way of life on the world and change the life that people have chosen for themselves,' he stated.

Since the onset of the war in Lebanon, over a million people have been forced to leave their homes, as the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran continues to impact the wider region. So, what is the current risk of World War III beginning? MacMillan believes that the country most likely to escalate the situation would be Iran or its allies, such as the Houthis in Yemen. Potential actions by Iran, such as attacks on shipping routes or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could have global repercussions, disrupt energy supplies, and drag major powers into conflict.

The involvement of the United States raises the stakes, and even other countries not directly involved feel the impact economically or strategically. MacMillan also notes that conflicts in one region can create opportunities in others. For instance, China may decide that a distracted West provides it with a chance to make a move regarding Taiwan, or Russia may intensify its actions in Ukraine while the world's attention is focused elsewhere.

Professor Maiolo believes that the conflict will remain regional and involve the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia. He does not foresee China and Russia becoming embroiled in the war. 'The idea that something happens in the world and China will immediately rush to Taiwan is just complete nonsense,' he argues. In his view, China has other plans in its diplomacy and may take advantage of the situation by observing how the West makes strategic mistakes.

Overall, while Moscow emphasizes its partnership with Iran, this does not obligate Russia to provide military assistance to Iran. Thus, the question of whether we will witness World War III remains open, and much depends on the actions of key players on the international stage.