Viktor Orban and His Policy Towards Ukraine: Elections in Hungary on the Horizon

This spring, Ukraine has become the focal point of Hungary's parliamentary election campaign, set for April 12, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has adopted the slogan 'We will not be dragged into that war!'. For over a month, he has been actively demonizing Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky, even labeling Ukraine as an 'enemy', as reported by the pro-government Hungarian portal index.hu.

Orban not only criticizes Ukraine but also regularly blocks assistance that the European Union intends to provide to Ukraine. Currently, Hungary has vetoed the allocation of already agreed-upon 90 billion euros, which are vital for Ukraine. Notably, Hungary itself is not participating in the disbursement of these funds, indicating that Orban is not only refusing to help but is also obstructing other countries from doing so.

By blocking aid to Ukraine, Orban plays a significant role in the plans of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The confrontation with Ukraine is not a coincidence for the Hungarian Prime Minister, who has long pursued a pro-Russian policy. Today, Hungary has effectively become a satellite of Russia on the international stage. Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Orban has met with Putin twice in Moscow, while his Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has visited Moscow 16 times during the same period.

This minister, Peter Szijjarto, has also regularly reported to Moscow on European Union meetings, which has shocked some European partners. Orban has closely tied Hungary to Russia, and while nearly all of Europe is abandoning Russian energy resources, the Hungarian Prime Minister continues to receive over 80% of his oil and gas, as well as 100% of nuclear fuel from Russia.

Russian business is actively penetrating Hungary through a 'green corridor'. The Orban government has signed an agreement with Rosatom for the completion of the Paks II nuclear power plant. As early as 2019, a major Russian financial institution, the International Investment Bank, was relocated from Moscow to Budapest.

Under Orban's leadership, Hungary has become a thoroughfare for Russian intelligence services. On March 20, The Washington Post reported that Russian spies arrived in Budapest to assist Orban in his election campaign, preparing a plan for a fake assassination attempt on the Hungarian Prime Minister to mobilize voters.

In September of last year, a former deputy director of the Moldovan Intelligence Service was arrested in Romania, and during the investigation, it was revealed that he had regularly met in Budapest with curators from the Belarusian KGB. Additionally, last autumn, Russian intelligence accused Ukraine of preparing a provocation using debris from a Russian drone, which was initially picked up by some Hungarian media.

Andrzej Sadecki, head of the Central Europe department at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, pointed out the threat of compromising information: 'In the current conditions, Russian intelligence services have access to a large amount of information about various individuals in Hungary.' By choosing Ukraine as a means to distract voters from the difficult economic situation in Hungary, Orban has also handed Ukraine a certain trump card.

As for Ukraine's reaction, Zelensky's initial responses to Orban's attacks only played into the hands of the Hungarian ruler. For instance, his personal threat to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Orban's address elicited a negative reaction from EU leadership. However, it seems the president has already understood the situation and has ceased overly sharp responses to Orban, which is a correct step. Nevertheless, Ukraine should take another step forward by making diplomatic and positive statements about friendship with the Hungarian people.

This will help undermine Orban's strategy, making him appear malevolent towards a neighboring country suffering from aggression, bombings, and a major war. Ukraine needs to win the war not only in the East but also in the international political context.