Ukraine Expands Long-Range Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure — ISW

Ukraine is intensifying its campaign of long-range strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, with recent attacks on the Sheskharis oil terminal and the Admiral Makarov frigate at the port of Novorossiysk marking a significant escalation. According to the report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these strikes are part of a broader strategy that undermines Russia's ability to export oil, causing not only material damage but also threatening the stability of the Russian economy, which heavily relies on oil sales.

The ISW analysts highlight that the vast geographical expanse of Russia presents considerable challenges in protecting such strategic assets, especially with traditional air defense systems that Russian military forces continue to depend on. They remind readers that Ukraine has previously conducted extensive campaigns targeting Russian air defense radars, leading to an overload of Russian air defense systems that must cover large territories.

In light of these developments, Russian military correspondents have begun criticizing the inefficacy of air defense systems, pointing to the impact of Ukrainian strikes. One military correspondent, close to the Kremlin, stated on April 6 that due to continuous Ukrainian attacks, Russian anti-aircraft forces are “working to exhaustion,” and their munitions are being consumed “at an accelerated pace.” This correspondent also lamented the impossibility of simply creating tens of thousands of missiles for the Pantsir air defense systems out of thin air, criticizing Russian media suggestions to increase supplies of surface-to-air missiles and air defense systems to counter Ukrainian attacks, emphasizing the complexity of ramping up production of such weaponry.

He urged the Russian military to study Ukraine's experience in countering air attacks, proposing the establishment of “more maneuverable fire groups, more interceptor drone units, and more acoustic reconnaissance systems.” Other Russian military correspondents have also expressed concerns regarding the resources required to mitigate the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes, noting that daytime attacks by Ukrainian drones further deplete Russian air defense capabilities.

ISW analysts conclude that Russia appears to have yet to fully develop or deploy mobile fire groups, interceptor drones, or other low-cost systems to defend against repeated Ukrainian attacks on dispersed targets within Russia. Reports indicate that the Kremlin has allowed private enterprises to develop their own potentially low-cost solutions for combating drones. However, the targets recently struck by Ukrainian Defense Forces were not adequately protected by such methods, according to ISW.

Experts believe that this extensive campaign of long-range strikes by Ukraine, which has already inflicted significant damage on Russia's export capabilities, is likely to force Russian forces to redirect valuable human and material resources to bolster air defense rather than utilizing these resources to combat Ukraine. “Russian forces will likely adapt over time, considering their initial attempts to develop interceptor drones and discussions about creating mobile fire groups, but the need to protect many large, widely dispersed facilities may remain a challenging issue for them,” ISW emphasizes.

On the night of Tuesday, April 7, drones again attacked the Ust-Luga port in the Leningrad region of Russia following reports of its partial resumption of operations. Additionally, on the night of April 6, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully struck the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk. The General Staff reported that a large fire broke out at the terminal, and the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov was also hit.

According to sources from NV within the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the strike damaged six out of seven oil loading stands used for loading and unloading oil from tankers. Hits were also recorded on the terminal's ground infrastructure: a key section of the pipeline system and an oil accounting unit were struck, leading to large fires at the impact sites.