Ukraine’s Gambling Market Needs Common Sense – Natalia Denikeieva

Ukraine’s gambling market is undergoing real and tough change. Natalia Denikeieva, deputy minister at the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, explains the state of the market. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Natalia Denikeieva, deputy minister at the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. Photo: Ministry press office. Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google On April 1 – a year to the day since Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation took on the challenging responsibility of reforming Ukraine’s complex gambling market – Kyiv Post sat down with Deputy Minister Natalia Denikeieva. In this interview, Denikeieva discusses the current state of the gambling market, the potential ban on gambling for the military, and more. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . Kyiv Post: Perhaps the most pressing current issue for the gambling market is the proposed ban on gambling for military personnel. At what stage is the implementation of this planned change? Is such a ban justified at all? Natalia Denikeieva: This issue is not new. Several years ago, there was a presidential decree and an NSDC [National Security and Defense Council] decision, because ludomania [compulsive gambling] is a significant problem. The most high-profile cases – where people lose everything and fall into debt – are one way or another related to military personnel. We remember Pavlo Petrychenko’s petition [a Ukrainian soldier and activist who initiated a petition on March 29, 2024, to restrict online casinos and gambling for military personnel during martial law – Ed.]. As the policy-making body, we cannot fail to react to this. We [recently] put forward for public discussion, a Cabinet of Ministers resolution initiated by the Ministry of Digital Transformation to place a ban on gambling for the military. In practice, this should work at the stage of personal identification: when a person registers at an online casino, the system “knocks” on the Register of Persons with Restricted Access to Gambling Establishments registry of ludomaniacs, as well as the register of military personnel. If a person is in one of them, the organizer will receive a response that access to the game is denied to this person without knowing the specific reason (whether it is an addiction or military status). Is the register of military personnel ready as yet? The Ministry of Defense team is currently working on it. It should start working tentatively in the summer. Are there any fears that this will push people to look for illegal casinos? One cannot say that such fears do not exist; they do. Of course, you can’t just impose a ban; you must simultaneously strengthen the blocking of illegal sites and work with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regarding payment gateways. There are no quick fixes. Currently, we are at the stage of discussing restrictions; after that, specific decisions will be made. What if public discussion shows that such bans are not justified? Public discussion exists so that businesses and citizens can provide feedback or suggest a better approach. Simultaneously, input is being sought from the Ministry of Defense and other departments. We are open to suggestions. We have a great dialogue with business, so perhaps they – the representatives of gambling business operators – will suggest some alternative. Our goal is not to make things worse and not to provoke a transition to the “shadows” or a loss of taxes. If proposals are based on common sense, we will take them into account. Is there the political will for a ban on gambling for the military? The military themselves say it’s a problem. That said, the main problem is the stigmatization of ludomania in society. The political will is there, and therefore we can definitely say that restrictions – not necessarily a ban – for the high-risk group will definitely be established in the short term, within a month or two, taking into account the technical aspects. Will future restrictions for the military apply to the lottery market? No, this does not apply to lotteries, because they do not cause the same level of addiction. The only problem is that under the guise of lotteries, slots are sometimes run, but PlayCity is fighting this. What markers of risky behavior are established by law? These are established in regulations relating to the fight against ludomania. Markers include a sharp increase in bets, frequent account top-ups in a short time, and attempts to bypass or exceed established limits. The organizer is obliged to remind the player of the time spent in the game and the amount lost. If they see abnormal behavior, the organizers must stop the game or even refuse service.  PlayCity is currently conducting planned and unplanned inspections based on complaints about violations of such requirements, and the fines there are significant. The organizers themselves are not interested in such players because it creates more problems than income. Just for understanding, the most expensive license we have in Ukraine is Hr. 155 million ($3.5 million). Will a legal business operator risk a license for which they paid such a fee? The question, it seems, is rhetorical. Do you track people listed on the Register of Persons with Restricted Access to Gambling Establishments? What preventative steps are taken by Ukraine in general? Yes, there are currently over 15,000 people listed on the register. We are now actively communicating, for example, the point that information in the register is confidential. This is so that those suffering from ludomania unerstand that self-restriction is not a stigma. We will soon launch a national campaign with human cases to overcome the stigmatization of ludomania which, unfortunately, exists in our society. It is important to explain to people that gambling addiction is treatable, not a reason for shame, and to talk about ways to solve this problem. Regarding market volumes, figures of Hr. 158 billion ($3.7 billion) spent by Ukrainians on various types of gambling in 2025 are being mentioned. Are these realistic estimates? Overall, the market volume figures you mentioned – plus or minus – coincide with our estimates. It can be stated for sure that the NBU can track legal payments by MCC [Merchant Category Code] and perhaps it is better to ask the relevant regulator about specific volumes of funds spent on gambling. But there are also drops and miscoding among illegal operators. According to our estimates, between 35% to 52% of the market operates in the “shadows.” Thus, it can be assumed that conditional “market volumes” can reach Hr. 200 billion ($4.6 billion) per year. Please can you explain the new taxation model for the gambling market proposed by the Ministry of Digital Transformation? The story of changing the taxation model in the gambling market now is an attempt to bring everything in line with common sense. Currently, organizers effectively pay taxes twice: first GGR [Gross Gaming Revenue, which in Ukraine equals 18% – Ed.] and then income tax [18% – Ed.], without being able to count GGR as an expense.  We propose allowing GGR to be counted as an expense. In fact, gambling organizers have long had in hand the decisions of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, which determined that the current taxation system contradicts logic and economic sense. Therefore, we hope that we will be able to bring Ukrainian tax legislation to a logical and economically justified model. We also plan to change the taxation of winnings: currently, a person pays personal income tax and military tax on the entire amount of funds they withdraw from the gambling organizer’s site, and we propose to make that only on the net win, that is, on the difference between the funds the person bet and the amount of the win. In this way, we will remove the bias that today effectively pushes players into the shadows where there are no taxes – but at the same time, any rules, protection, and control from the state are absent. Is there interest in the Ukrainian market from foreign players? The market is huge (we already talked about this) and interesting, but the imperfection of legislation and the war make us a complex jurisdiction.  But – for large companies – it is important that the rules are clear. We must do our homework and form a stable practice, as we once did with Diia.City. Foreign players are the benchmark of a civilized market. Let’s take, for example, the lottery market, which we truly restarted, and for the first time in 12 years, the state received license payments – almost Hr. 72 million ($1.6 million) annually. Our current law on lotteries is written in such a way that foreign players will physically be unable to enter our market. However, the main thing is that we passed the law despite fierce resistance, restarted the market, and collected these first license payments. Now, we have already developed a series of legislative changes that should improve the legal regulation of this market and will be able to open the lottery market in Ukraine to foreign players.  Ultimately, we hope that the relevant committee of the Verkhovna Rada [Ukraine’s government] will support our proposed changes, and then the people’s deputies will approve them in the session hall. Natalia Denikeieva, deputy minister at the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. Photo: Ministry press office. What are the main results of the work of the Ministry of Digital Transformation team and PlayCity? Together with PlayCity, we have ensured over Hr. 17 billion [$391 million] in tax revenue. We have adopted the regulations against ludomania, launched the first stage of the State Online Monitoring System (SOMS), and have already begun testing connections for organizers. During our joint work, over 3,500 online casino websites have been blocked, including 620 since the beginning of 2026. Nearly 500 social media pages have been removed for promoting illegal content, including 216 since the start of this year alone. Fines totaling Hr. 80 million UAH [$1.8 million] were issued for illegal casino advertising, with over Hr. 10 million [$230,000] in 2026.  Additionally, during this period, we have calculated nearly Hr. 2 billion [$46 million] in license payments, including more than Hr. 239 million [$5.5 million] since the beginning of this year alone. Senior editor of Ukrainian edition of Kyiv Post.