Turning Point in Ukraine? Kyiv Seizes Initiative as Russia Falters on Battlefield

For the first time since 2022, battlefield momentum appears to be shifting toward Ukraine, driven by drone warfare, counterattacks and deep strikes into Russia. Russian forces are losing ground, suffering heavy casualties and facing mounting logistics and air defense strain. Make us preferred on Google Flip Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied (Photo by General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google For the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion started in 2022, the initiative appears to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor, according to analysts quoted by The Economist. The Economist said Russian forces are facing mounting battlefield setbacks, rising losses, and increasingly effective Ukrainian strikes deep behind the front lines. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . According to the report, the symbolism was underscored during Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade, which lacked heavy military equipment – a stark contrast to previous years and a sign of growing strain on Moscow’s military capacity. On the battlefield, Russia’s expected spring offensive has largely failed to deliver results. In April, Russian forces recorded a net territorial loss for the first time since August 2024, when Ukraine launched operations in Russia’s Kursk region. According to estimates based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow lost control of roughly 113 square kilometers (47 square miles) over the past month. Analysts attributed Ukraine’s gains to a combination of localized counterattacks, increasingly precise mid-range strikes, and disruptions to Russian communications and logistics. “Overall, it feels like an inflection point in the war,” Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor at King’s College London, told The Economist. He warned that continued failures could lead to broader Russian collapse in some sectors. Other Topics of Interest ‘He's a Russian Lobbyist’: Kallas Rejects Putin Choosing Schröder as EU Negotiator EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Russia should not influence who negotiates on behalf of the European Union. Russia’s deteriorating manpower Russia’s manpower losses are also mounting. Estimates suggest that Russia loses around 35,000 troops per month – a pace that exceeds recruitment capacity. Total casualties since the 2022 invasion began are believed to approach 1.4 million killed and wounded based on Ukrainian estimations . Another issue for Moscow is a worsening ratio of killed to wounded soldiers. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have suggested that Russian forces may now be losing nearly two soldiers killed for every one wounded – a sharp deterioration from earlier in the war. Military analysts link the worsening ratio of killed to wounded soldiers to the growing dominance of first-person-view (FPV) drones, which now account for up to 80% of casualties. These drones, often guided by fiber-optic cables and enhanced with artificial intelligence (AI), are difficult to detect and increasingly target both frontline troops and evacuation efforts. “They simply leave their wounded on the battlefield,” Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told The Economist. Drone warfare is also reshaping the battlefield beyond the front lines. A “kill zone” extending up to 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) is disrupting Russian logistics, forcing limits on convoy movements and complicating resupply operations – particularly for advancing units. At the same time, Ukraine is expanding its strike capabilities deeper into Russian territory. Mid-range drones targeting infrastructure within 50 to 300 kilometers (31 to 186 miles) – and long-range systems reaching up to 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) – are increasingly hitting oil facilities, airfields, and military hubs. In March, Ukraine reportedly surpassed Russia in the number of long-range drone strikes conducted. These operations now place up to 70% of Russia’s population within potential strike range, adding psychological pressure alongside economic damage. Strikes on energy infrastructure have already forced temporary production cuts of up to 400,000 barrels per day, while key export hubs have operated significantly below capacity; Zelensky recently said the attacks have cost Moscow $7 billion in lost oil revenues this year. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s scale and resource base continue to support operational endurance. At the same time, air defense assets are increasingly overstretched, creating gaps in point protection for critical infrastructure. “The reality is that they are struggling at the front and not much is going right for them,” Freedman said. Whether this shift proves decisive will depend on the coming months – particularly on Russia’s ability to adapt to Ukraine’s drone advantage or mount a renewed offensive. But for now, the trajectory of the war suggests Kyiv is gaining the upper hand, according to The Economist. “It’s hard to see how things can improve for Russia. If you’re briefing [Kremlin leader Vladimir] Putin, it’s a pretty bleak picture,” Jones said. Putin claimed on May 9 that Russia’s war in Ukraine is “ moving toward its end ” and expressed openness to talks with Europe , marking a rhetorical shift from his previous hardline stance . Yet his choice of a pro-Kremlin former EU leader as a prospective intermediary, combined with his aide’s maximalist demands over the Donbas, casts doubt on whether Moscow is prepared to take meaningful steps toward ending the invasion. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization since 1995. Its international market reach of 97% outside of Ukraine makes it truly Ukraine’s Global – and most reliable – Voice.