Sweden Warns Russia Could Seize Baltic Island to Test NATO

Sweden’s top military commander has warned that Russia could launch a limited operation in the Baltic Sea to “make a point” and test NATO unity amid fears of a Baltic escalation. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Lieutenant-General Michael Claesson is appointed as the new Commander-in-chief of Sweden at a press meeting with Sweden's Prime Minister (not in picture) in Stockholm, Sweden, on June 7, 2024. (Photo by Henrik Montgomery/TT / TT News Agency / AFP) / Sweden OUT Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Sweden is preparing for a scenario in which Russia could seize an island in the Baltic Sea to test NATO’s response, the country’s top military commander said. According to The Times on Thursday, April 16, Swedish Chief of Defense Michael Claesson said Moscow could carry out a limited maritime operation “at any time” to probe divisions within the alliance. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . “It doesn’t have to be particularly extensive at all, but more to make a point and wait to see what might happen politically,” Claesson said. European security officials have increasingly raised concerns about escalation in the Baltic Sea, where Russia has stepped up military activity, including the escort of the so-called “shadow fleet” vessels and interaction with NATO naval forces. Military planning has traditionally focused on a potential Russian land attack along NATO’s eastern flank, but attention is now shifting toward maritime scenarios. War games have simulated possible Russian landings on strategically important islands such as Gotland in Sweden, Bornholm in Denmark, and Hiiumaa and Saaremaa in Estonia. However, Claesson said Russia could target smaller, less prominent islands, noting there are tens of thousands across the Baltic Sea. Swedish military intelligence has warned that Russia could already carry out a limited attack in the region and may expand its capabilities in the coming years. Officials also say that an end to the war in Ukraine could allow Russia to regroup and redeploy forces closer to NATO territory. Other Topics of Interest Drones Hit Tuapse Refinery, Energy Sites in Russia, Officials Say Drone strikes hit a refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region and energy infrastructure in Belgorod, with casualties and power outages reported. Recent escalations around the Baltic sea On April 9, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that countries permitting Ukrainian drones to transit their territory were exposing themselves to serious risks . “If third countries have provided or are providing their territory for enemy drones to fly over, they must fully understand – and we are confident they do, because it has been explained to them – the risks they are exposing themselves to,” she said. Estonia, where a Ukrainian drone recently hit the chimney of a power plant after being diverted by Russian air defenses, has reportedly urged Kyiv to adjust its flight path to avoid Estonian airspace during Baltic strikes. NATO ’s Baltic members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also reported multiple Russian airspace violations over the years, including a 2023 violation over Latvia and a September 2025 incident in which three MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace, prompting the country to convene a rare UN Security Council meeting . The Baltic states have also boosted defense along the Russian border, notably with the 2024 launch of the Baltic defense line . Yuliia Zavadska is a news writer at Kyiv Post. She has experience in breaking news coverage, fact-checking, and digital journalism, with a focus on fast, accurate reporting and clear storytelling. Before joining Kyiv Post, she worked as a news feed editor for several leading Ukrainian media outlets.