Russia's rhetoric on the Iran war reveals it's losing

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on March 26, 2026. (Contributor/Getty Images) Prefer on Google Natalie Arbatman Research associate with Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East At a March meeting on Operation Epic Fury, European Council President Antonio Costa said, "There is only one winner in this war: Russia." Europe is right to be worried about Russian gains in this war. But this analysis is short-sighted and overlooks a central fact: the Kremlin is watching a key chess piece slip from the board, and its anxiety, not Europe 's, should dictate the terms of this conflict. Despite its modest effort to aid Iran , Russia has failed to meet operational objectives on the ground. To compensate, the Kremlin's media apparatus has moved in lockstep with its military support, with dozens of Russian officials shouting to halt this war immediately. Europe has consistently echoed the need to end the war prematurely, revealing that the Western alliance, while prone to natural internal tensions, has also fallen victim to Russian information warfare. But like a conventional weapon, this propaganda can be reverse-engineered, and in fact, should be read by its target audiences in the West as a diagnosis of the very problem it seeks to remedy: the degradation of the Islamic Republic is catastrophic for the Russia-China-Iran-led axis. Alexander Dugin, Russia's preeminent anti-American voice, articulated Russia's view of Operation Epic Fury in the days following the attacks, saying: "The war of the USA and Israel against Iran is actually a war against Russia." Dugin correctly frames the fight in Iran as a contest for global hegemony. The Russian attempt to draw a wedge between Western allies is not surprising, and in fact reveals the Kremlin's recognition of its own weakened position. Expelled from Syria after the fall of Assad, losing influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan, and facing a restless Central Asian region that has discovered strength through its independence, Moscow is en route to a regional foothold it once relied on to counterbalance the U.S. Across the Atlantic, Russia has lost its Venezuelan partner and is losing its Cuban one. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov expressed this reality, linking Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran into a single pattern of U.S. strategy: "As for Iran, Rubio…recently suggested that the United States would govern Iran. Just as they announced that they would rule Venezuela. Now, a similar scheme is being tried out for Cuba. And, probably, this is not the end." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15, 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images) Once again, the Kremlin's rhetoric exposes their vulnerabilities as the U.S.'s non-European operations systematically close off Russia's strategic options. Moscow feels this acutely in Iran. First, on energy. Beyond the marginal economic relief oil revenues provide against Russia's mounting fiscal deficit, a U.S.-secured Strait of Hormuz forecloses something far more valuable to Moscow — options. Every future diplomatic crisis, regional flare-up, and moment of Iranian grievance would have been another opportunity to re-price the world's energy supply, with Russia collecting the dividend without bearing the risk. Second, Iran has acted as a significant armorer of Moscow's war in Ukraine , providing Shahed drones to Russia and helping it localize production, while Russia sends advanced drones to Iran to bolster its capabilities in return. This co-production model, in which Iranian designs, technical expertise, and components are integrated into Russian manufacturing lines, allows Moscow to scale output, adapt systems to battlefield conditions, and reduce reliance on imports. To degrade Iran's military capacity is therefore to disrupt a shared production architecture that underwrites Russia's ability to wage sustained drone warfare in Ukraine. Third, the financial dimension. Iran has spent decades building a sophisticated sanctions-evasion network. Russia, by exploiting the network's shadow banks, front companies, cryptocurrency channels, and sanctions-busting middlemen, has become a beneficiary of this web. An effort to dismantle the shared system that helps insulate both Iran and Russia from U.S. economic warfare not only defunds the IRGC's source of revenue but also degrades the plumbing through which Russia builds its parallel financial network. Finally, a weakened Iran limits Russia's already waning options to exert control over the Caucasus and Central Asia, regions once crucial to Russian strategy. The historic peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia came on the heels of the 12-Day War in June that degraded Iran's military capabilities. With Iran weakened, there is little left to stop the region's full reorientation away from Russian influence. The mismatch between these facts and European perceptions is, in part, informed by Russian messaging. But Russian messaging also reveals that Operation Epic Fury is one of the most direct strikes on Russian strategic power available to the U.S. today. This suggests a useful rule of thumb for the West: when the Russians tell you what they are afraid of, listen. Editor's note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Natalie Arbatman is a research associate with Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. She has a background in economics and quantitative analysis and fluency in Russian.