Russia Loses Ground for First Time Since 2024 as Advance Slows Sharply — ISW

ISW estimates Russian troops lost control of 116 square kilometers during the month, even as fighting remained intense. The setback marks a shift after months of incremental, but steady, gains. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) servicemen keep watch as people gather for a concert dedicated to the first anniversary of the annexation of four regions of Ukraine Russian troops control - Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, at Red Square in central Moscow on September 29, 2023. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss in April – the first time since Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast – according to the Institute for the Study of War ( ISW ), signaling a continued slowdown across the front. ISW estimates Russian troops lost control of 116 square kilometers during the month, even as fighting remained intense. The setback marks a shift after months of incremental, but steady, gains. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . Russian advances have been declining since late 2025, as Ukrainian counterattacks, mid-range strikes, and operational disruptions – including limits on Russia’s use of Starlink and tighter Kremlin control over Telegram – compounded battlefield challenges. The data shows a steep drop in momentum. Russian forces captured about 1,443 square kilometers between November 2025 and April 2026 – far less than the 2,368 square kilometers seized during the same period a year earlier. Daily gains have fallen to roughly 2.9 square kilometers in early 2026, down from nearly 10 in early 2025. Seasonal factors may be playing a role. The spring “rasputitsa” – when thawing ground and rain turn terrain into mud – has historically slowed offensives. Still, ISW notes that structural issues are also driving the decline. Russian forces are increasingly relying on infiltration tactics – small-unit incursions into contested “gray zones” – rather than securing and holding territory. These operations can create the appearance of progress but often leave areas outside firm Russian control. Other Topics of Interest ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2026 Latest from the Institute for the Study of War. ISW estimates Russia infiltrated or claimed up to 1,716 square kilometers over the past six months, but firmly held significantly less. Analysts say the tactic helps Moscow sustain a narrative of continued advances while masking battlefield limitations. Meanwhile, problems are emerging in Russia’s air campaign. Military bloggers report that although Sukhoi Su-34 jets are being equipped to carry more glide bombs, the effort is constrained by shortages of aircraft, maintenance crews, and trained personnel. Some pro-Kremlin voices also warn that strikes are poorly prioritized, with expensive munitions often used on low-value targets and missions frequently shifting without achieving clear results. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization since 1995. Its international market reach of 97% outside of Ukraine makes it truly Ukraine’s Global – and most reliable – Voice.