Russia Issues Veiled Threats to Baltic Countries Over Airspace Usage Statements

On April 6, 2023, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made veiled threats towards the Baltic countries, specifically Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This statement came after Moscow suggested that Ukraine's allies were allegedly permitting the use of their airspace for attacks on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea — a claim that the Baltic states have repeatedly labeled as disinformation.

During a press conference in Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the Baltic countries had "received an appropriate warning." She added, "If the regimes of these countries have enough sense, they will listen. If not, they will have to deal with a response," according to reports from Russian state media.

Despite their resolute support for Ukraine, the Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have remained on the sidelines of the fighting, providing only military aid, intelligence support, and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv since the onset of the full-scale invasion, while keeping their territories free from attacks on Russia.

Zakharova's comments came amid reports that Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian oil terminals along the Baltic Sea coast in recent weeks, as Kyiv seeks to limit the revenue that Russia accrues from rising global oil prices.

The strikes have primarily targeted the northwestern Leningrad region of Russia, which is located along the Baltic Sea and borders Estonia. Colonel Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' Intelligence Center, confirmed in an interview with the Estonian publication ERR on April 6 that Tallinn would not allow its territory or airspace to be used for attacks on Russia.

"We have recommended choosing corridors for attacks so that (Ukrainian drones) do not enter Estonian airspace," Kiviselg said, adding that it is "impossible" to rule out the possibility that Ukrainian drones might inadvertently enter Estonian airspace due to the increased drone attacks.

These comments occurred against the backdrop of two Ukrainian drones inadvertently entering Latvia and Estonia, respectively, during a massive nighttime attack on targets in Russia on March 25. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna described the incident as a "direct consequence of Russia's full-scale aggression."

Last week, Latvia also issued a statement refuting Moscow's claims that it had allowed the use of its airspace.

"Latvia rejects as completely unfounded the false accusations propagated by Russia that Latvia has allowed its territory to be used for drone attacks on Russia and demands the immediate retraction of this clearly false information," stated the Latvian Ministry of Defense on March 31.

Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces resumed their attacks on the Leningrad region in the early hours of April 7, with explosions noted near the port of Ust-Luga, where a well-known Russian oil terminal is located. Local officials claimed that 22 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the region during the attack.