Russia Sees Record Oil Export Revenues Amid Middle East Conflict

According to analysts, the value of Moscow's oil exports surged to $2.02 billion per week in the 28 days leading up to April 5, marking the highest figure since June 2022. This increase has been attributed to rising global oil prices and a recovery in supply volumes.

Experts point out that the "war in the Middle East has driven global oil prices to multi-year highs and increased demand for Russian barrels after Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping." This closure has blocked over 12 million barrels of crude oil exports from the Middle East per day in the Persian Gulf, which, in turn, has contributed to a reduction in the volume of Russian oil stored at sea as refineries seek alternative supplies.

However, despite the rising prices, the Kremlin is unable to fully capitalize on these advantages due to the prolonged impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on export ports, as well as a two-week ceasefire in the Iranian conflict that led to a drop in oil prices. The decline in crude oil flows from Russian ports coincided with an increase in supplies from tankers that had previously been stranded at sea with Russian cargoes.

As a result, the amount of Russian oil at sea has decreased to 105 million barrels, compared to a peak of 140 million barrels in mid-January. Indian refineries have actively purchased Russian oil that was previously stuck in the Arabian Sea. "Last month, supplies to this South Asian country rebounded to 1.9 million barrels per day — the highest level since June, after the U.S. issued permits for the purchase of Russian oil loaded on tankers before March 12," Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, the volume of supplies to China has decreased to similar levels, compared to a record 2.1 million barrels per day in February.

At the beginning of April, prices for Russian oil rose to their highest level in over 13 years, as Moscow took advantage of the global increase in oil prices linked to the Middle Eastern conflict. However, on April 8, oil prices fell by more than 10% in the morning following news of a temporary halt to U.S. strikes on Iran.

Indian refineries purchased about 60 million barrels of Russian oil for delivery in April, easing their concerns about supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East. The United States issued a limited license allowing countries to purchase some Russian oil and petroleum products that are already at sea. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that this decision "will not bring significant financial benefits to Moscow" and will allow "for the expansion of global availability of already existing supplies."