Level of Illegal Tobacco Trade in Ukraine Reaches 17.6% at the Start of 2026, Kantar Study Reveals
A recent study by Kantar Ukraine has revealed that the illegal tobacco trade in Ukraine stands at 17.6% as of early 2026, indicating that nearly one in six cigarette packs on the domestic market is illegal.
According to the findings of the project "Monitoring Illegal Tobacco Trade in Ukraine," implemented by Kantar Ukraine on behalf of leading industry manufacturers, the overall level of illegal tobacco trade in Ukraine at the beginning of 2026 is 17.6%. This alarming statistic suggests that almost every sixth pack of cigarettes sold in the domestic market is illegal.
Kantar analysts have calculated that with such a level of the shadow market, the volume of illegal cigarettes reaches approximately 5 billion pieces per year. This situation leads to significant losses for the state budget due to unpaid taxes, which amount to 28.1 billion hryvnias. These figures underscore the seriousness of the problem of illegal tobacco trade in Ukraine.
The study also revealed that at the beginning of 2026, the share of counterfeit products bearing fake excise stamps has decreased to 9.0%. At the same time, there is an observed increase in the share of products marked as Duty Free or intended for export, which has reached 7.7%. This indicates changes in the structure of the illegal tobacco market.
According to the study data, 37% of counterfeit products consist of cigarettes with fake excise stamps, the main producer of which, according to the labeling on the packaging, is "Marshall Finest Tobacco" (United Tobacco) / VK Tobacco FZE. Among the illegal products that are marked as Duty Free or intended for export, 57% are produced by the Vynnyky Tobacco Factory, as indicated on the packaging.
Geographically, 67% of the total volume of illegal tobacco products is concentrated in seven regions of Ukraine. This year, the Kirovohrad region has been added to the list of the most problematic areas, indicating an expansion of the illegal trade zone.
The project "Monitoring Illegal Tobacco Trade in Ukraine" is being continuously implemented by Kantar Ukraine. The research is based on the collection and analysis of empty cigarette packs, as well as conducting interviews with smokers, which allows for the identification of channels of entry and origin of illegal goods in the domestic market. This information has been published by the company on its Telegram channel, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring of the tobacco market situation in Ukraine.