No tanks, internet blackouts: Moscow braces for tense Victory Day parade

The Kremlin's scaled-down May 9 spectacle reflects fears of Ukrainian strikes and Russia’s wartime vulnerabilities. A man in a military uniform checks his mobile phone on a street in Moscow, Russia, on May 6, 2026. (Natalia Kolesnikova/Anadolu/Getty Images) Prefer on Google by Karol Luczka On May 9, Moscow will stage its annual Victory Day parade marking the end of World War II in Europe — but this year, the spectacle is notable not for its grandeur, but for what's missing. For the first time in Vladimir Putin's Russia, no missiles, tanks , or armored vehicles are expected to appear in Saturday's Red Square parade. Although the Kremlin offered no explanation for the dramatic scale-back, recent Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory have suggested that even Putin's military showcase may no longer be beyond reach. The recent reports by a consortium of international media alleged that the Russian president has become increasingly scared of a coup , including the use of a drone strike possibly framed as a Ukrainian attack. In a conversation with the Kyiv Independent, experts said the Kremlin's decision to scale back the parade was unprecedented, citing both Kyiv's growing strike capabilities and Russia's concern that its signature display of military strength would clash with the reality of a prolonged and costly war in Ukraine. For decades, the Kremlin has treated Victory Day parades as a matter of utmost importance, enforcing extensive measures to ensure everything proceeds without disruption. This year, precautions are more extreme than in previous years: on May 9, mobile internet service is set to be completely cut off in Moscow , with serious disruptions also recorded in the Russian capital — and in other major cities — throughout the past week. As to military equipment, answers vary on why none of it will be shown at the parade. On one hand, Russia has lost a great deal of it in Ukraine. On the other, according to Olha Polishchuk from global armed conflict data tracker ACLED, Russian equipment losses are "difficult to measure" in general. Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government via videoconference in Moscow on April 23, 2026. (Alexander KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images) Given the war's realities, it would also be "logistically difficult" to transport vehicles and missiles to Moscow just for the parade, said Maria Piechowska from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). According to the researcher, however, the event's downscaling primarily shows that Russian authorities are "worried about Ukrainian attacks." Fears surrounding a possible strike either on the parade or other areas in Moscow on May 9 could have also dissuaded some foreign leaders from attending the event this year, Piechowska argued. As opposed to previous editions, this year only a handful will be present in Moscow, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico expected as one of the few notable guests. However, he is planning on skipping the parade . "Attending this event has always been a useful opportunity (for foreign leaders) to meet top Russian leadership and hold side meetings with business circles," explained András Rácz, a Russian foreign policy analyst at the German Council on Foreign Affairs (DGAP). The fact that so few decided to attend this year shows Russia's "decreasing relative importance and growing isolation," Rácz said. "Russia has not been able to fully save Iran, so now countries of the global south are anxiously watching to see how reliable Russia is as a security partner," he added. As to actual security issues — linked to possible Ukrainian strikes — experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent agreed that despite rhetoric, Kyiv is still unlikely to conduct a direct strike on Moscow. Such a strike would be a "waste of resources," Polishchuk argued, given that Russia will put great effort into deploying air defense to protect the event. "I think it is likely-ish that Ukraine will attack Russia (on May 9), but I think what is more likely is that (Ukraine) will keep an appearance that they might attack (the parade)," Polishchuk said. Russian servicemen wait to participate in a rehearsal for the Victory Daya parade at Red Square in Moscow, Russia on May 4, 2026. (Igor Ivanko/AFP/Getty Images) "I think the point is to just discourage people from participating in what Ukraine sees as a very cynical event, which is about celebrating Russian victory (in WWII), while at the same time Russia is engaged in an aggressive war against its neighbor." At the same time, Russia's anxiousness around possible Ukrainian attacks shows that Russian air defense capacities are insufficient, Rácz argued in turn. In addition to this, Ukrainian capabilities to strike deep within Russia have "become a lot stronger" over the past year, according to him. "The fact that Russia asked for a ceasefire on the days of the parade shows just how anxious the Kremlin is to have no Ukrainian strikes disrupt the parade," Piechowska agreed. In turn, President Volodymyr Zelensky has deliberately kept the ambiguity. Ukraine " doesn't recommend " that foreign representatives attend the May 9 parade in Moscow, Zelensky said, after Russia threatened retaliation if its unilateral ceasefire was violated. For years, Moscow's Victory Day parade has served as one of the Kremlin's most carefully choreographed demonstrations of military strength and geopolitical influence. But this year's visibly scaled-down event risks sending the opposite message — turning what was meant to project power into a reminder of the pressures and limitations Russia now faces amid the war in Ukraine. A Pantsir-S1 air defense system remains positioned on the roof of the Russian Defense Ministry headquarters in Moscow, Russia on May 5, 2026. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images) Whatever the reasons for the downscaling decision, this year's small-sized Victory Parade was a "painful and desperate decision" for the Kremlin, Rácz said. This is especially the case given the symbolic meaning behind the holiday. "Victory Day was always a show of force in Putin's Russia — especially targeted at people outside of Russia, and those post-Soviet countries who continue to celebrate May 9," Piechowska said. While Russia will still attempt to use the parade to project power, the limited number of foreign guests is telling, Rácz argued. Karol Łuczka is a freelance journalist focused on Ukraine and Russia. He also works as Eastern Europe Advocacy Lead at the Vienna-based International Press Institute (IPI). Karol holds an MA in International Security from Sciences Po Paris.