U.S. LNG Export Capabilities Near Peak Levels, EIA Reports

In light of decreased liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a situation exacerbated by the commencement of military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran, the global supply of LNG has experienced a substantial contraction. This reduction has led to a notable widening of the spread between the spot price of gas at the U.S. Henry Hub and the prices of imported gas in Europe and Asia.

According to the EIA's monthly report, U.S. LNG export capabilities reached nearly peak levels, with the country exporting 17.9 billion cubic feet of gas per day in March, approaching the record levels seen in December 2025. However, only a slight increase in export volumes is anticipated, as this flexibility is supported by the postponement of scheduled maintenance, the ramp-up of new project capacities, and the acquisition of new export permits.

The EIA report highlights that the increasing spread between U.S. prices and international markets is incentivizing the growth of LNG exports from the country, despite limited capacities. "At least one export terminal operator in the U.S. is considering delaying maintenance in light of favorable pricing conditions due to global supply disruptions in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26). We expect that utilization rates at U.S. terminals in 2026 will be somewhat higher than in 2025 and close to maximum capacity, as the difference between domestic Henry Hub prices and European and Asian import prices for spot cargoes remains significant," the report states.

Furthermore, the EIA projects that an additional export capacity of 0.9 billion cubic feet per day will come online in the second quarter of 2026. This includes the third phase (line 5) of the Corpus Christi LNG facility, which is largely completed as of March, as well as the first line of the Golden Pass facility, with exports scheduled for the second quarter of 2026. In March, the U.S. Department of Energy approved a 13% increase (0.5 billion cubic feet per day) in the export permit for the Plaquemines LNG project.

According to Bloomberg, the difference between the average near-month futures prices at Henry Hub and the price at the European TTF hub averaged $14.89 per MMBtu, marking an 83% increase compared to February. The gap between Henry Hub and the Asian JKM index increased by 98% during the same period, reaching $15.23 per MMBtu.

The EIA has raised its U.S. LNG export forecast for 2026 to 17 billion cubic feet per day, an increase from the January forecast of 16.4 billion cubic feet per day. The forecast for 2027 has also been adjusted upward to 18.6 billion cubic feet per day, which is 0.5 billion cubic feet per day higher than the January estimate. In 2025, the U.S. exported 15.1 billion cubic feet per day.

Additionally, the EIA has increased its forecast for pipeline gas imports into the U.S. for the current year by 0.1 billion cubic feet per day to 8.1 billion cubic feet per day. Colder-than-expected weather in January and February led to an increase in natural gas consumption for heating compared to initial forecasts. Pipeline gas imports in January 2026 averaged 10.6 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing the 9.4 billion cubic feet per day noted in the January forecast. The agency estimates that in February, pipeline gas imports reached 9 billion cubic feet per day, which is 0.1 billion cubic feet per day higher than the January forecast.

The heating season for 2025-2026 (November-March) concluded with gas stocks exceeding the five-year average by 3%, totaling just 1.9 billion cubic feet. "Considering the increase in production and very limited capacity for export growth, we expect that gas injection by the end of October will exceed the five-year average (by 6%) and will total 4.015 billion cubic feet," the report concludes.