Massive Drone Strikes on Ukraine: New Tactics and Assessments

In Ukraine, massive strikes by Shahed-136/БМ-35 Italmas kamikaze drones and Gerbera/Parody decoys have been ongoing for nearly 24 hours. From the evening of March 23 at 18:00 until 18:00 on March 24, the enemy executed the most extensive drone attack recorded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. A total of 948 kamikaze drones were deployed, with 906 successfully intercepted, representing approximately 95% of the total number of drones utilized by the adversary.

This assault, according to military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance group, was not a one-time accumulation of munitions but rather a preparation that had been ongoing since March 14. Regarding the theory of new daytime attack tactics, the analyst expressed doubts, asserting that the prolonged nature of the strike was not due to new strategies but rather the limited capabilities of Russian occupying forces to launch drones en masse.

This argument, the expert noted, served as the basis for his rebuttal of articles from publications such as The Economist and Financial Times, which claimed that Russia would launch 1,000 Shahed-136 drones each night. The military expert elaborated on this issue, pointing out not only the lack of production capacity to manufacture such a quantity of drones daily but also the insufficient number of launch platforms to execute such plans.

Beginning on the evening of March 31 around 18:00, new drone launches commenced. By 08:00 on April 1, the enemy had deployed 339 drones, approximately 200 of which were Shahed-136, resulting in the interception of 298 targets. From 08:00 to 18:00, launches continued, with an additional 360 drones used, of which around 250 were Shahed-136, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) managed to shoot down 345 targets.

Thus, within a single day, the adversary utilized 699 drones, of which 643 were intercepted, accounting for 91% of the targets. The Shahed-136 component constituted 450 targets, or about 65% of the total. Considering Russia's known capabilities to produce Shahed-136 and decoy drones, certain calculations can be made.

From March 24 to March 29, when the enemy deployed 442 drones, approximately 300 of which were Shahed-136, the Russians accumulated 348 units of production, or, taking into account daily production, around 600. After March 29 and up to April 1, they approached with an accumulated potential of about 250 drones, which, considering the daily production on March 31 and April 1, results in a figure of 750 drones.

The drone strike from 18:00 on April 1 to 08:00 on April 2 involved 172 drones, 120 of which were Shahed-136. The accumulation stands at 78 units of terror instruments, and considering the daily production volume of about 330 drones, this indicates that the planning team for terrorist strikes by Russian occupying forces in rear Ukraine has engaged not only specialists in energy, logistics, and life support systems but also those capable of linking the planning of pinpoint and mass strikes with production capabilities.

Currently, we are not discussing an increase in the production of finished terrorist instruments but rather a new form of planning that is more rational, calibrated, and cold-blooded. However, given the limited capabilities in terms of scaling both production and terror, it is forced to adapt. In the near future, this planning approach is likely to be elevated to a systematic level of application by the adversary.

This text has been published with the author's permission.

Tags: Shahed attacks, missile strikes, Russia's war against Ukraine, Oleksandr Kovalenko, military expert.