Lithuanian Colonel Discusses Four Scenarios of Russian Aggression Against the Baltic States

In a recent interview with the Ukrinform news agency, Lithuanian Colonel Linas Idzelis discussed four possible scenarios of aggression that the Russian Federation may employ against the Baltic states. He noted that these scenarios were developed during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a time when Lithuania was actively preparing for potential threats from its neighboring state. According to the Colonel, Russia may attempt to implement its aggressive intentions possibly in conjunction with Belarusian forces, as Belarus would not be able to remain neutral in the event of a conflict with NATO.

The first scenario considered by Lithuanian military officials is hybrid warfare. Idzelis recalled the events of 2014 when militants supported by the Russian GRU and special forces operated without identifying insignia in Ukraine. He emphasized that such an invasion was preceded by a large-scale information campaign and cyberattacks, making the invasion merely a continuation of initial hybrid actions. The Colonel also pointed out that since then, Ukraine has learned numerous lessons, and the West is now better prepared for similar scenarios.

Idzelis explained that many senior military officers in Lithuania are aware of this scenario, as they previously studied it using Russian textbooks. He stated that in these materials, an invasion is only the last phase, following significant preparatory work. The Russians always operate according to this principle, and now, thanks to platforms like Telegram, it has become easier for them to recruit individuals for subversive activities such as smuggling, arson, or vandalism.

The second scenario that Lithuanian officers have studied during exercises involves changing the mindset of the local population through reflexive control operations. Colonel Idzelis explained that the ultimate goal of this scenario is for Russian tanks to be greeted with flowers instead of grenades. This indicates an attempt by Russia to influence the perception of the populace in the Baltic states and to compel them to view the aggressor as a friend.

The third scenario discussed by the Colonel concerns an energy blockade. He emphasized that Lithuania has already taken all necessary measures to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. However, as Idzelis noted, some European countries still remain so dependent on Russian hydrocarbons that Moscow can easily conduct influence operations and blackmail their governments.

The fourth scenario, according to the Colonel, involves a sudden and rapid attack. He provided an example where several thousand Russian servicemen in civilian clothing could arrive in Lithuania at night in civilian vehicles. This operation could be accompanied by around 400 Shahed drones and cruise and ballistic missiles launched around five in the morning. The Colonel believes that this scenario poses the greatest danger, as European countries, in his assessment, are not prepared to defend against such a volume of aerial targets.

Idzelis also noted that a massive airstrike or simultaneous airborne operation could commence, followed by a conventional offensive involving tanks and armored personnel carriers. He stressed that if such a scenario were to be realized, the Russian army would act more cautiously. The Colonel also reminded that Russia underestimated Ukraine's resistance in the early days of the full-scale invasion, which was a result of flawed intelligence data. He pointed out that large sums of money spent on influence operations in Ukraine were simply stolen by Russian puppets within the country.

In conclusion, Colonel Linas Idzelis emphasized that the European Union must actively support Ukraine, as allowing Russia to win on the battlefield could lead to further attacks on European countries, with the forced involvement of Ukrainian mobilization resources. His remarks highlight the seriousness of the situation and the need for consolidated efforts to ensure security in the region.