Hungary after Orban: Relief in Brussels, reality check on Ukraine

Peter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party, at a rally ahead of the election in Györ, Hungary, on Thursday, April 9, 2026. (Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images) Prefer on Google by Chris Powers, Martin Fornusek Viktor Orban's defeat in Hungary's election will likely unlock the EU's 90 billion-euro loan for Ukraine and its EU membership bid, but that does not mean progress will be instantaneous or free of further obstacles. Even so, " Peter Magyar 's win is a positive shift for Hungary and the European Union , and also for Ukraine. It reduces the risk of political blockages in the Council and creates more space for decisions to move forward," says David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee. "Ultimately, Orban's departure is good news for Ukraine . Moscow's biggest advocate at the EU leaders' table is now gone," said Harry Nedelcu, senior director for geopolitics at Rasmussen Global. In Brussels, "quite a lot of people here have breathed a sigh of relief," one EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent. The last days of the election campaign revealed just how much Orban and members of his Fidesz party were working to support Russian interests. Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto regularly called his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to coordinate on the approach Budapest should take at meetings of EU leaders. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto chat before a meeting between Russia's President and Hungary's Prime Minister at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 28, 2025. (Alexander Nemenov / POOL / AFP via Getty Images) The fruit of that cooperation has been the blocking of EU work on a range of fronts: from the 90 billion euro ($105.5 billion) loan for Kyiv, to the latest package of Russia sanctions, and even the formal opening of EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. While Orban's successor, Peter Magyar, has pledged something of a reset with Brussels, his Tisza party "hasn't run on a pro-Ukraine ticket and will need to work with a very skeptical public," says Christopher Glück, managing director at Forefront Advisers. "On Magyar, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating," said one EU national diplomat. Tisza's manifesto rules out any form of "accelerated EU membership" for Ukraine, and Magyar is likewise against Hungary sending military assistance to Kyiv. "I am not indulging in rosy illusions … they want to reset relations with Brussels and the EU. And given the EU's support for Ukraine, this will obviously also influence Hungary's policy," said Mykyta Poturaiev, a lawmaker from President Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People party. Neither Poturaiev nor his party colleague and head of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, expects Magyar to change tack on his ruling out of an accelerated EU membership process. Even so, "I'm cautiously optimistic … it might open a new chapter in the relations between Ukraine and Hungary," Merezhko told the Kyiv Independent. And likewise, "the expectation in Brussels is that everything will become much easier than with Orban", Glück told the Kyiv Independent. The EU is pushing for quick progress on the issues that Orban has been blocking. On both the EU's 20th Russia sanctions package and on the 90-billion-euro loan for Ukraine, a Cypriot official said: "We intend to put it on the agenda of Coreper (national ambassadors of the 27 EU member states) as soon as conditions permit it, with a view to a swift conclusion of both files." Magyar said at a press conference on April 13 that he did not understand why the 90 billion loan was causing issues. He noted that Budapest "was given an opt-out" in December, something he expects to remain the case. "Hungary is in a very difficult financial situation," Magyar added. The next meeting of national ambassadors is to be held on April 15, but until the government changes in Budapest, there will still be Fidesz positions represented at the EU level. If Magyar takes the post quickly, Nedelcu says the 90 billion euros could be approved by the economy ministers in Brussels as soon as May 5. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban greets supporters at the Balna centre in Budapest during a general election in Hungary, on April 12, 2026. (Attila Kisbenedek /AFP via Getty Images) If the government takes longer to form, Glück predicts that it will not be until May that Magyar's government takes office — the earliest the loan could be unlocked would be June. EU leaders are due to hold a summit on June 18-19. Progress between Kyiv and Budapest on the rights of ethnic minorities in each other's countries could help lubricate the process. For Tisza, agreement with Ukraine would demonstrate that their new approach to international relations delivers results, in contrast to what came before. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha already wrote that he is "open to working together to ensure European standards for our respective national minorities — Hungarian in Ukraine and Ukrainian in Hungary," in his congratulatory tweet to Magyar. Ultimately, for Tisza, unblocking potentially as much as 20 billion euros ($23 billion) in EU funds, frozen over rule-of-law concerns, is the top priority. "Magyar will unlock EU funds for his domestic purposes as long as he plays the EU ball on Ukraine," predicts Andrew Duff, a British former member of the European Parliament who now writes for the European Policy Center. The other big question, the opening of EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, remains in place. However, one EU official told the Kyiv Independent, "there is optimism that the Council may soon be in a position to give the official green light" to formally start talks on negotiation clusters to align Ukraine with EU law. And here too, "we have quite a bit of leverage," an EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent, referring again to the frozen EU funds. But a green light does not automatically mean EU membership for Ukraine, accelerated or otherwise. "There are no shortcuts on fundamental principles," said McAllister, who added that progress is dependent on the candidate country's reforms and alignment with EU policy. "Not only does (Slovak Prime Minister) Robert Fico remain, but also other political leaders more skeptical of support for Ukraine may now be forced into the open without Orban's cover," says Nedelcu. Fico had joined Orban in recent months to block EU support for Kyiv until the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia through Ukraine, is repaired. In response to the news of Magyar's election win, Fico posted on social media that he still advocates "a joint approach with Hungary in protecting our energy interests" and that there remains a "strong interest" in restoring the Druzhba pipeline. While Tisza's manifesto has a goal of ending dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2035, Magyar had suggested during the election campaign that he and Orban be allowed to inspect the pipeline together. Zelensky said he expects the pipeline to be restored in " spring ." Whether Fico intends to try to block EU progress alone remains unclear. And no other current EU leader has taken quite as hostile a stance to Ukraine as Orban. One potential fresh source of obstacles could be Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who is in the same European political grouping as Orban and was elected in 2025 on a Ukraine-skeptic ticket. And on April 19, the new left-wing Progressive Bulgaria is leading the polls, and its leader, ex-President Rumen Radev, has previously opposed sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine.