Former US Diplomat Daniel Fried Says Moscow Is Falling Back on Soviet-Style Escalation Threats

Veteran US diplomat Daniel Fried says Hungary may stop acting as Putin’s agent in Europe and that Ukraine should move quickly to restore damaged ties with Budapest. Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Former US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried during an interview on April 16, 2026. (Photo: Kyiv Post) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Russia Reverting to Soviet-Era Threats Former veteran US diplomat Daniel Fried, who played a key role in designing and implementing American policy after the fall of the Soviet Union, blasted Russia’s efforts to threaten Ukraine’s partners. He argued that Russia is falling back on a familiar Soviet-era habit of escalation threats as it struggles to counter Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . “The Russians are, let us say, fond of resorting to threats of escalation. This is a habit of the Russians going back to Soviet times,” Fried said, commenting on Moscow’s warning that increased European drone support for Ukraine makes Europe directly involved in the war. Speaking to Kyiv Post, he said the threats reflect frustration rather than strength, because Russia has failed to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield. “They’re frustrated because they cannot beat Ukraine. So they’re trying to claim that they’re fighting NATO, they’re fighting the US. They’re trying to frighten the Europeans. I don’t think it will work,” Fried said. He added that Russia has already targeted Europe through hybrid attacks, including sabotage, but has failed to shake European resolve. Talks ‘Are Nowhere’ Without More Pressure Fried voiced frustration with peace talks that he said were “going nowhere,” arguing that Washington’s attention has shifted. “I don’t think the talks are anywhere,” he said. “The US has been distracted by the Iran conflict.” Other Topics of Interest Influencer Warns Putin, Says Russians Becoming ‘Coiled Spring’ The Kremlin acknowledged sharp public criticism after a prominent influencer warned President Vladimir Putin that growing pressure on Russians could spark unrest. While there were reports last week that negotiations could resume, Fried said any renewed effort should be grounded in a tougher approach toward Russia, not conciliatory messaging that risks emboldening President Vladimir Putin. “Every time that senior people in the US administration say the US has stopped assisting Ukraine – not quite true – all of those sorts of statements encourage Putin to continue the war,” Fried said. Such remarks, he added, undercut Washington’s own stated goals. “If the US were doing more for the Ukrainians and working with Europe, we would be in a far better position vis-à-vis the Russians and quite possibly able to push the Russians into serious negotiations for the first time,” he said. Kyiv Right to Reject Pressure Over Donbas Fried was also critical of any suggestion that Kyiv may be pressured to give up Donbas. “I think the Ukrainians are right to reject it,” Fried said. “The Russians have not captured this territory and they may never be able to.” Instead, he argued, Moscow is trying to get Washington to do its work for it. “They’re trying to get the Americans to carry their water for them, as the saying goes, and convince the Ukrainians to pull out,” Fried said. “Kyiv is right to resist that.” Oil Sanctions Relief Was a ‘Dumb Move’ Fried, who has served under both Republican and Democratic administrations, welcomed the US decision not to renew broad oil sanctions relief for Russia, calling the earlier move strategically misguided. “If you felt the need to allow more Russian oil to reach markets to ease upward pressure on those markets, then there are ways to do so without putting so much money in Putin’s pocket,” he argued. He said the general license was too broad and handed Russia an unnecessary advantage. “You could have had restrictions on how the money could be used,” Fried said. “I’m glad that the Trump administration has not renewed it. Good news,” he said. Turning to Hungary, Fried said the election result was driven primarily by domestic frustration with Viktor Orban’s rule. “Well, the Hungarians voted for Hungarian reasons,” Fried said. “Orban had brought the country economic stagnation and massive corruption, and Hungarians were sick of it.” Fried described the result as a setback not only for Putin, but also as a potential opening for Ukraine. He said the political change in Budapest could bring practical gains for Kyiv and argued that Ukraine should move quickly to build ties with Hungary’s incoming leadership as an opportunity to reset a damaged relationship. More broadly, he said, Hungary may stop serving as Moscow’s spoiler inside Europe. “I think that Hungary will stop being Putin’s effective agent in Europe.” Fried offered a particularly sharp assessment of Orban himself, arguing that the outgoing Hungarian leader represented something more dangerous than mainstream conservatism. “I think that Viktor Orban was not so much a conservative as he was a radical nationalist with an agenda that recalled some very bad parts of Hungarian strategic culture from the 1930s,” Fried said. “So I won’t miss him.” Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.