Expert: Over 80 Sectors of the Russian Economy Are Already in Decline

In his remarks on Ukrainian Radio, Dr. Andriy Dlihach, a doctor of economic sciences and the head of Advanter Group, raised alarms regarding the precarious state of the Russian economy, indicating that over 80 sectors are already in decline. The expert emphasized that in order for Russia to cease its military actions, it is essential to ensure that the country expends significantly more resources than it currently does.

Dlihach pointed out that Ukraine is allocating more than 25% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to conduct the war, whereas Russia is spending approximately 10%. He also noted that Russia has limited support from its allies, who, while assisting in the technological development of the military-industrial complex, are striving to keep pace with Ukraine. The economist believes it is crucial to do everything possible to prevent Russia from receiving assistance, which is why sanctions are being imposed, particularly against India and China.

However, according to Dlihach, the current sanctions are insufficient. He stressed that there is no development in the sanctions approach, and the only effective method remains physical sanctions imposed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Main Intelligence Directorate on the Russian oil industry and its shadow fleet.

The economist also reminded listeners that in the first two months of 2026, Russia lost nearly half of its oil product exports. He highlighted that 75% of oil products exported from Russia pass through Baltic ports and the Black Sea port, particularly through Novorossiysk. Continued attacks on these ports could lead to further reductions in oil exports. Although Russia has decreased its export volumes, it continues to generate more revenue due to rising prices for liquefied gas in Europe and increasing oil prices. Dlihach also underscored the necessity of destroying Russia's military-industrial complexes and its logistical capabilities.

In the expert's view, changes in the Russian economy do not occur instantaneously; however, the accumulation of negative phenomena will lead to a collapse. Dlihach noted that this collapse may manifest in the central government's inability to fulfill its obligations, a refusal to pay military personnel, and a sharp decline in the stock market. He also warned of a potential increase in inflation and significant hikes in fuel prices. Currently, Russia has 40% of its oil and gas exports halted, but this is merely a temporary situation. If Russia cannot restore these capacities within a few months, it will lead to a substantial deficit and rising prices for oil products and food, triggering a chain reaction in the country's economy.

Dlihach further emphasized that over 80 sectors of the Russian economy are already exhibiting negative dynamics. According to him, the contraction of these sectors has been observed over the past 12 months, and these changes are gradually undermining the Russian economy. Presently, Russia is borrowing from the future, covering its budget deficit through emission, which lays destructive factors for the economy in the coming years. The expert believes that by the end of the year, Russia will exhaust its options for hidden mobilization and will be forced to transition to a mobilization economy, which will involve seizing citizens' deposits, introducing new taxes, and implementing forced mobilization, all of which will only accelerate the economic downturn.

In conclusion, Dlihach reminded that according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, the pro-Kremlin Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting is recording stagnation in Russian industry at the beginning of 2026, despite traditionally optimistic official statistics.