Donald Trump May Attempt to Withdraw the U.S. from NATO, But It Will Not Be Simple

The political landscape surrounding NATO is increasingly complex as discussions about the potential withdrawal of the United States from the alliance under former President Donald Trump gain traction. Renowned political scientist and professor at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, who also serves as a research advisor at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, has articulated his views on this pressing issue. The critical question that emerges is whether Trump could obtain the necessary Congressional approval to execute such a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, especially given the current political climate in the United States.

Historically, NATO has seen only one instance of Article 5, which pertains to collective defense, being invoked. This occurred in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, when European nations and Canada rallied to support the United States in its war against terrorism by deploying troops to Afghanistan. This precedent is vital for Trump to consider, although it is widely recognized that he often filters and distorts facts to suit his narrative.

The question arises: can Trump unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO? The answer is not straightforward, as there is no clearly defined procedure for the U.S. to exit international treaties. However, it is worth noting that Congress ratified the United States' entry into NATO, which implies that its consent may be necessary for a withdrawal. This topic has sparked vigorous debates among experts in the field.

According to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 (NDAA 2024), the president is prohibited from suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing the United States from NATO without obtaining a two-thirds majority in the Senate or passing a separate law through Congress. This legislation was specifically enacted in response to Trump's previous statements regarding a potential exit from the alliance.

Currently, Trump does not possess the two-thirds majority in the Senate, complicating his plans. While Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of Congress, the situation in the Senate is precarious. An important factor to consider is that the fiscal year ends on September 30, when the provisions of this law will cease to be in effect. The upcoming midterm elections on November 3 could result in Republicans losing at least one chamber, further complicating Trump's position.

If Trump decides to take steps toward withdrawing from NATO, it could lead to intervention from the Supreme Court, whose stance on this matter remains uncertain. Additionally, such a move could incite fierce political battles within the country. Therefore, the prospect of a formal U.S. exit from NATO remains ambiguous, but it would undoubtedly have serious implications for both the United States and the global security framework.

Unfortunately, such scenarios may be considered within the White House, and it is likely that the administration will attempt to communicate to Trump the myriad risks associated with a potential NATO withdrawal. This issue remains open-ended, and its developments will be closely monitored by both domestic and international communities.

The text is published with the author's permission.