Russian Budget Revenues from Oil and Gas Plummet by 43% in March 2026

In March 2026, the revenues of the Russian budget from oil and gas sales decreased by 43% compared to March 2025, despite the prevailing high prices for oil. This significant drop occurred because Russian companies calculated their taxes based on the February price of Urals crude oil, which stood at $44.6 per barrel. In contrast, the price of oil in March reached $77 per barrel, a figure that will only influence budget revenues in April. This information was reported by the publication Kommersant, citing data released by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

The publication highlights that the Russian budget continues to face a challenging financial situation. In March, an additional 60 billion rubles (approximately $750 million at current exchange rates) were withdrawn from the National Wealth Fund to cover the deficit. For comparison, in February, 244 billion rubles were extracted from the Fund, while in January, the amount was 155 billion rubles. As of April 1, the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund stood at 3.89 trillion rubles (around $48.58 billion).

In March, tax revenues to the federal budget of the Russian Federation from oil and gas extraction and sales amounted to 617 billion rubles (approximately $7.7 billion), which is 193.7 billion rubles (about $2.43 billion) more than in February. However, this increase can be attributed to a calendar factor, as in March, the budget received a tax on additional income, which oil companies do not pay monthly but rather four times a year. Excluding this tax (191.5 billion rubles), the March revenue figure would have been comparable to that of February.

When comparing year-on-year figures, oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget in March decreased by 43%, while for the first quarter, the decline was 45%. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced a new oil price on April 3, which has already been affected by the ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran; this new price is set at $77 per barrel. This figure is significantly higher than the Urals price in March 2025 ($59) and the annual average level projected during the budget formation for 2026 (also $59 per barrel).

At the same time, despite the current Urals price exceeding the cutoff price, additional ruble revenues flowing into the budget will not be used to purchase foreign currency for accumulation in the National Wealth Fund. On March 27, the Russian government decided to suspend monthly operations for buying and selling foreign currency and gold until July 1. This means that the additional oil and gas revenues remain at the government's disposal and may be utilized to cover current expenses.

The aggressor country has previously resorted to similar measures in 2022, following the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine: additional oil and gas revenues were temporarily directed towards current expenditures until 2023. According to some estimates, the March price of Urals at $77 per barrel could nearly double the oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in April, reaching levels of 1.1 to 1.2 trillion rubles (averaging around $14.46 billion).

As previously reported, calculations by the KSE Institute suggest that rising oil prices could bring Russia an additional $84 billion in revenues in 2026. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that even a softening of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil could yield an additional $10 billion for the aggressor country. Meanwhile, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin expressed concerns at the end of March that the revenues generated from rising oil prices would be quickly spent.

Additionally, according to the Financial Times, Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea have already partially hindered Russia's ability to capitalize on rising oil prices. This indicates that military actions continue to impact the economic situation in Russia and its capacity to generate revenues from the oil and gas sector.