Why Putin Cannot Win the War Against Ukrainians

Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, finds himself in a predicament where his attempts to win the war against Ukraine are failing not due to a lack of resources, but because of the very goal he has set for himself. This goal involves the eradication of Ukrainians as a distinct nation. Part of the Ukrainian population he seeks to physically eliminate, while another part he attempts to force into renouncing their own identity for the sake of survival. This ambition is clearly evident in both his public statements and military actions. However, this objective is an utterly unachievable strategy.

In fact, Putin is trying to continue the mission of one of his inspirations—Joseph Stalin. Stalin also recognized that the existence of Ukrainians as a nation posed a threat to the empire. Yet even Stalin was unable to achieve this goal, despite significantly more favorable conditions: most Ukrainians at that time were already within the borders of his state, which was capable of mass terror. But even then, despite his control, a portion of Ukrainians remained beyond his reach.

Stalin's attempt to 'finish the job' in the territories annexed after 1939 faced fierce, prolonged, and well-organized resistance. Although this resistance was ultimately suppressed, it came at a cost of exhaustion that undermined the empire. It began to crack immediately after Stalin's death, and the memory of this resistance became one of the factors leading to its collapse.

Unlike Stalin, Putin does not even have such capabilities. He does not control the territories where the majority of Ukrainians live. Therefore, he can only implement his strategy in the occupied lands, and he is doing so. This is terrifying and painful for Ukrainians, but it is insufficient to achieve his goals.

Moreover, the very threat of annihilation mobilizes the majority of Ukrainians, awakening those who had remained indifferent to their identity. This threat empowers, consolidates society, and makes the realization of Putin's plan even less likely. It also obliterates the tools of 'soft power' that Russia had used for years to Russify before the war began in 2014.

Thus, it can be argued that Putin is already losing today. And he is losing definitively precisely because his strategy is flawed, built on an unrealistic goal. Such strategies always lead to defeat. Perhaps this defeat will not come as quickly as Ukrainians would like, but it is inevitable. No changes in tactics, of which there are actually very few, can alter this outcome. Therefore, it is crucial to stick together, invest in the common cause of victory, and we will undoubtedly witness the collapse of the empire.

This text is published with the author's permission.