Business Improves Assessments of Business Activity: Positive Changes in March

In March 2026, Ukrainian businesses demonstrated a recovery in positive assessments of their economic activities, made possible by a range of factors that influenced business activity. According to data from the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine, the results showed improvements in both monthly and annual measurements.

This marks the first time since May 2025 that all surveyed sectors of enterprises exhibited optimistic assessments. Among the main reasons for this positive trend are the gradual normalization of the energy situation, an increase in consumer demand, the inflow of international financial assistance, and the stabilization of the currency market. Seasonal factors, which traditionally promote business activity in the spring period, also played a significant role in this process.

However, despite the positive changes, there are also restraining factors affecting business activity. Notably, the intensification of shelling of critical infrastructure, heightened inflation expectations, and a shortage of qualified personnel could negatively impact the further development of businesses.

According to the National Bank, in March 2026, the BAEI stood at 52.7, a significant increase compared to 45.9 in February 2026. It is also worth noting that in March 2025, this indicator was at 51.8, indicating an overall improvement in business activity.

Among the economic sectors, construction enterprises reported the highest assessments of their performance. This can be attributed to favorable weather conditions and the need for road restoration. The sectoral index in March rose to 55.0, a significant improvement compared to 46.6 in February and 52.9 in March 2025.

Industrial enterprises also provided positive assessments of their current activities for the first time in nine months. This was made possible by the gradual stabilization of the energy situation and an increase in consumer demand. The sectoral index in March was 51.2, an improvement from 46.9 in February (and 53.1 in March 2025).

Trade enterprises also expressed optimism in their assessments of economic results, which is related to a sufficient supply of goods and a slowdown in inflation. The sectoral index in March stood at 54.0, matching the level of March 2025 (with 45.0 in February 2026).

The services sector, in turn, also showed positive assessments of current business activity for the first time in ten months. This was made possible by stabilization in the energy system and a revival of domestic demand. The sectoral index in March was 52.8, an improvement compared to 45.4 in February and significantly exceeding the March 2025 figure (48.8).

It is important to note that enterprises across all sectors anticipate an acceleration in the growth rates of prices and tariffs for their own products and services against the backdrop of further expected increases in procurement prices, as well as prices for raw materials and materials. Only builders expect a slowdown in the growth rates of procurement prices, which may indicate stability in this sector.

The National Bank of Ukraine also noted that the labor market situation remains unstable. As in the previous month, only representatives from the construction sector plan to increase the overall number of employees. In contrast, respondents from other sectors expect staff reductions, with the largest cuts anticipated in industry, which may indicate certain difficulties in this sector.

Earlier, it was reported that the Business Activity Expectations Index in January 2025 decreased by 4.8 points compared to December of the previous year, standing at 41, which corresponds to the level of January 2024. In February 2025, the index rose by 5.9 points to 46.9, but this was still below the level of February 2024 (47.5). In March 2025, the index again increased by 4.9 points to 51.8, which is just slightly below the level of March 2024 (52.0). In September 2025, the BAEI rose to 50.4 points from 49.0 in August, exceeding the level of September 2024 (48.7).