Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico Faces Challenges in Anti-European Policies Amid EU Dependencies
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico may struggle to maintain his hardline anti-European stance without the support of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as Slovakia's reliance on EU assistance and his own political risks loom large.
On April 9, Bloomberg reported that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is likely to find it challenging to continue his strict anti-European policies without the backing of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. This situation arises due to Slovakia's significant dependence on European Union (EU) financial aid and the political risks that Fico faces.
Fico has previously stated that he is prepared to pursue an anti-European agenda should his ally Orban lose power. However, sources indicate that without support from Budapest, Fico's position weakens considerably, making it difficult for him to act against the EU independently.
Insiders suggest that Slovakia's heavy reliance on EU financial assistance means that Fico is unlikely to risk escalating conflicts with the EU if Orban is no longer in power. Despite sharing similar views with the Hungarian Prime Minister, particularly regarding cooperation with Russia, Fico typically adopts a pragmatic approach when it comes to the economic interests of Slovakia, emphasized a European official.
Moreover, Fico's stance will significantly influence the EU's decision regarding the allocation of over €90 billion in aid to Ukraine, which Hungary and Slovakia had previously blocked. At the same time, Fico's political position remains unstable ahead of the upcoming elections, and his influence within the EU is limited without support from other nations, as highlighted by Bloomberg.
Diplomats speculate that if there is a change in Hungary's leadership, Russia may focus more intently on Slovakia, attempting to sway its political landscape and upcoming elections. Nevertheless, Fico is likely to strive for a balance between criticizing the EU and maintaining the benefits of Slovakia's membership, according to his former associate Boris Zala.
On April 12, parliamentary elections will take place in Hungary, marking the most significant challenge for Orban since he came to power in 2010. Polls indicate that the opposition party Tisza is currently leading over Orban's ruling party, Fidesz.
On February 12, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha announced that the supply of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline was halted on January 27 due to a Russian attack. This attack resulted in a severe fire and significant damage to equipment. However, Hungary and Slovakia did not acknowledge the damages, claiming that Ukraine had ceased oil supplies to them allegedly for political reasons.
Hungary has refused to consider alternatives to Russian energy supplies, such as deliveries through Croatia, arguing that Russian oil is cheaper. On March 16, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated that Budapest would block the provision of a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine and the adoption of the 20th sanctions package against Russia until Ukraine restores the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.
On March 17, the European Union offered Ukraine technical support and funding for the repair of the Druzhba pipeline, an offer that Kyiv accepted. The following day, on March 18, Naftogaz head Serhiy Koretsky reported that EU experts had arrived in Ukraine to assess the condition of the Druzhba pipeline and held a working meeting with the leadership of the oil sector.
On March 26, Orban ordered the cessation of gas supplies to Ukraine through Hungary starting in July. The political dynamics surrounding these events continue to unfold as Slovakia navigates its relationship with the EU and Hungary.