Ukraine – Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The Price of Defiance: Vance vents Trump’s fury at Zelensky Make us preferred on Google Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied People stand silhouetted against a backdrop of the US and Hungarian flags at a rally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban supported by US Vice President JD Vance (neither in picture) at the MTK Sportpark in Budapest on April 7, 2026. (Photo by Jonathan Ernst / POOL / AFP) Content Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Bluesky Email Copy Copied Flip Make us preferred on Google Donald Trump’s return to the White House was supposed to introduce a new era of American strength in the Middle East. Instead, escalating confrontation with Iran has destabilized the region. The Strait of Hormuz teeters on closure, and America’s traditional allies quietly explore what a post-American Middle East might look like. Also, in case some have been distracted, there is the increasingly pertinent question of what to do with NATO without the traditional, reliable US military backbone. Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official . But the real story this week isn’t just Trump’s Middle East disaster. It’s what his administration is doing to Ukraine while the world is preoccupied with Iran. On April 7, Vice President JD Vance flew to Budapest – five days before Hungary’s pivotal April 12 election – to campaign openly for Viktor Orbán, the EU’s most prominent defector from Western consensus on Ukraine and an unabashed friend, if not ally, of Vladimir Putin. The American vice president publicly aligned himself with Volodymyr Zelensky’s most obstructive antagonist within the EU and NATO. Standing beside Orbán, Vance called Ukrainian criticism of the Hungarian prime minister “scandalous” and described it as “one of the worst examples of foreign election interference I have ever seen.” There is no need to read between the lines: Washington’s patience with Ukraine’s “insubordination” has run out. Other Topics of Interest Zelensky: US Overlooks Russia Helping Iran Target Bases, Says He Tells Trump 'He’s Not Always Right' Zelensky says the US ignored evidence that Russia aided Iran in attacks on US bases, blaming Washington’s trust in Putin and Trump negotiators’ Moscow visits. Zelensky now faces a cruel irony that can no longer be disguised: his country’s critical security guarantor is simultaneously creating conditions that undermine Ukrainian survival while actively supporting its opponents. Even if the will to support Ukraine existed, the immediate damage from the Iran escalation is considerable and worsening. American military assets repositioned to the Gulf are unavailable for Ukraine’s defense. The State Department is redirecting weapons to the Middle East theater. Energy markets disrupted by the crisis drive up costs for a struggling Ukrainian economy. Russia temporarily profits because of the chaos, backing Tehran as American attention drains away from Ukraine. But the strategic damage cuts deeper. Ukraine finds itself caught between two predatory powers, each insisting on subordination as the price of survival – and now Washington is tightening the screws. From Moscow: accept territorial concessions, abandon NATO aspirations, and become a neutral buffer state. The Kremlin calculates that an overstretched Washington will pressure Kyiv to accept a deal that allows the US to shift resources elsewhere. From Washington – a different but equally corrosive pressure, now made explicit by Vance’s Budapest performance. The Trump administration views Kyiv through a purely transactional lens. Support becomes contingent on deference to American priorities – which increasingly means accepting whatever arrangement serves Trump’s domestic political narrative and accommodating his preferred autocrats. When Zelensky criticizes Orbán for blocking EU aid, Vance calls it election interference. When Orbán cultivates Moscow and Beijing while sabotaging Ukrainian support, Vance praises him for defending “Western civilization.” The double standard is not subtle; it is obscene. More telling still: in Budapest, when discussing actual peace negotiations, Vance dismissed Ukraine’s territorial concerns as mere “haggling over a few square kilometers of territory.” A few square kilometers! The phrase captures Washington’s contempt for Ukrainian resistance. This is not a legitimate nation defending its sovereignty but a stubborn minor irritant over trivial disputes. Never mind that those “few kilometers” contain Ukrainian cities, towns, infrastructure, defense lines, and people. Never mind that every surrendered inch represents permanent strategic vulnerability. Now comes the final twist: even the promise of Western protection is evaporating. On the same day Vance was in Budapest, Trump warned NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that Europe cannot depend on continued American military support for Ukraine. The message was clear. As long as NATO refuses to join Trump’s Iran war and other schemes and Europeans prioritize their security interests over ambitions, American support for Ukraine’s defense is contingent, temporary, and possibly nonexistent. Not to mention the possibility of US withdrawal from NATO itself, something an irate Trump has recently been threatening to do. Ukraine faces pressure from Washington to accept territorial concessions while being told it cannot rely on American military backing. Caught between capitulation and abandonment, Zelensky has sought to hold his ground. In recent weeks, while Washington fixated on Tehran, the Ukrainian president undertook a diplomatic offensive that received less attention than it deserved. His visits to Gulf capitals – Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha –were strategic repositioning, cultivating relationships with powers that have capital, influence, and reasons to resist control by Washington or Moscow. By building relationships outside the traditional Western alliance, Zelensky created room for Ukrainian agency while exploiting the disorder Trump’s Middle East policy intensified. The vice president’s unprecedented and brazen intervention in Hungary’s election revealed the risk in Zelensky’s gambit, shocking in its alignment against Ukrainian interests. Diversifying partnerships and cultivating Gulf relationships only works if the primary security guarantor tolerates such independence. The Trump administration has made clear it does not. When Zelensky tries to build alternative relationships, when he criticizes leaders who obstruct Ukrainian aid, when he refuses to simply accept whatever terms Washington and Moscow negotiate over his head, the response isn’t reluctant respect for Ukrainian sovereignty. It’s punishment. The Gulf states have oil, sovereign wealth funds worth trillions, and a geopolitically strategic geography that makes them indispensable to global energy markets. Ukraine has courage, a just cause, and a desperate need. When Saudi Arabia defies American preferences, Washington grumbles but accommodates. When Ukraine does the same, the vice president flies to Budapest to campaign for Ukraine’s opponents. The breakdown is not limited to the American-led order. The European Union experiences its own crisis of coherence. Brussels can no longer command automatic alignment from member states on Ukraine policy. Ukraine’s adversaries exploit this split. Orbán uses EU division to block aid. Vance uses it to justify Washington’s collaboration with autocrats. Ukraine faces an existential threat from Russia and needs Western support to survive. The question is which strategy can preserve Ukrainian sovereignty when the country’s primary security guarantor actively works against it. Zelensky’s gambit – refusing subordination to Moscow or Washington, cultivating alternative partnerships, claiming sovereignty through determination rather than waiting for it to be granted – was a test. He now faces brutal choices. Accommodating Washington may help maintain some American support, but it risks turning Ukrainian sovereignty into a mere illusion and its territorial integrity into a negotiable asset. Refuse accommodation and risk complete abandonment. The Iran war provides the perfect excuse. The question isn’t whether Zelensky’s strategy was sound – it was. The question is whether any strategy can succeed when Washington actively works against you, when weapons are diverted to other wars, and when the vice president campaigns for your opponents. The answer, increasingly, depends on how Ukraine’s other supporters in and beyond Europe will respond to the shockingly erratic, self-serving, and destructive approach to international affairs by a US president unlike any other. Ukraine, in the meantime, has again demonstrated that it is not prepared simply to capitulate to lawless bullies intoxicated by the notion that might makes right, but has shown that it counts on those who still adhere to the values and ethics of the free world. The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Kyiv Post. Bohdan Nahaylo, Chief Editor of Kyiv Post since December 2021, is a British-Ukrainian journalist, author and veteran Ukraine watcher based between Kyiv and Barcelona. He was formerly head of Amnesty International's Soviet Union unit, a senior United Nations official and policy adviser, and Director of Radio Liberty’s Ukrainian Service.